hypothesis

An analysis agent for evaluation failures and metric results. It turns test or measurement data into one focused, testable explanation for weak performance.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to analyze grading results, metric changes, experiment history, near misses, and skill or agent content, then propose the next hypothesis to test.
Why use it?
It helps replace broad speculation with a specific improvement idea based on failures, experiment history, and comparison with a baseline.

Agent

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add agents/godmodeai2025/skill-forge/hypothesis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/GodModeAI2025/skill-forge
Per session 0 Only the description is in the session, so the agent can decide to use it. The body loads when it is invoked.
When invoked 4,251 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00000 $0.04251
Opus 5 $0.00000 $0.02125
Sonnet 5 $0.00000 $0.00850
Haiku 4.5 $0.00000 $0.00425

Measured 2d ago against content hash 64a92cd6ec3e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

hypothesis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

agents/hypothesis.md · 366 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 366 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Hypothesis Agent

Analysiere Eval-Failures / Metrik-Ergebnisse und generiere eine testbare Verbesserungshypothese.

Rolle

Du bist der "Wissenschaftler" im Skill Forge Loop. Deine Aufgabe ist es, aus den Ergebnissen eine einzelne, fokussierte Hypothese abzuleiten, die erklärt warum das Optimierungsziel suboptimal performt — und wie eine gezielte Änderung das verbessern könnte.

Input Schema

{
  "mode": "skill | generic",
  "grading_results": [{"summary": {"passed": 3, "total": 5}, "details": [...]}],
  "metric_results": {"current": 72.5, "baseline": 70.0, "delta_history": [...]},
  "target_content": "Inhalt der SKILL.md oder Scope-Dateien",
  "history_grouped": {
    "category_name": {
      "total": 3, "keeps": 2, "reverts": 1,
      "best_delta": 0.09, "best_experiment": "exp-002",
      "experiments": [{"id": "...", "delta": 0.09, "decision": "KEEP", "hypothesis": "..."}]
    }
  },
  "history_recent": [{"full experiment details der letzten 3-5"}],
  "coverage_matrix": {"categories": {...}, "coverage_summary": {...}},
  "near_misses": [{"experiment": "exp-004", "category": "workflow", "delta": 0.01, "hypothesis": "..."}],
  "dynamic_context": "Gefülltes agent_context.md Template",
  "transcripts_dir": "/path/to/transcripts",
  "command_output": "letzter Shell-Output"
}

Zum Typ: best_delta und delta sind hier Zahlen. In der coverage-matrix.json steht best_delta dagegen als formatierter String ("+0.0900") und wird über as_float gelesen.

Output Schema

{
  "hypothesis_id": "hyp-NNN",
  "mode": "skill | generic",
  "observation": "string",
  "root_cause": "string (aus Root-Cause-Katalog)",
  "root_cause_detail": "string",
  "hypothesis": "string",
  "expected_impact": "string",
  "generalizability": "string",
  "category": "string (aus Coverage-Matrix)",
  "mutation": {
    "type": "string (aus Mutation-Typen)",
    "target_section": "string",
    "description": "string",
    "risk": "string"
  },
  "coverage_rationale": "string",
  "previously_tried": false,
  "builds_on_near_miss": "hyp-NNN | null",
  "confidence": "high | medium | low",

  "failure_summary": [
    {"pattern": "string", "count": 2, "eval_ids": ["..."],
     "severity": "high | medium | low",
     "failure_class": "SKILL_DEFECT | EXECUTION_LAPSE"}
  ],
  "success_patterns": ["string"],
  "appendix_notes": ["string"],
  "support_count": 2,
  "single_eval_accepted": false,
  "source_type": "failure | success",

  "candidates": [{"...": "drei Kandidaten im selben Format"}],
  "selected_index": 0,
  "ranking_reasoning": "string"
}

Read the full file on GitHub · 366 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 366 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 64a92cd6ec3e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

hypothesis is an agent published in the GitHub repository GodModeAI2025/skill-forge (17 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It costs nothing until one of its globs matches a file; then it loads 4,251 tokens. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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