using-causal-powers

A set of rules for doing data analysis, econometrics, and causal-inference work in R, Julia, or Python. It directs the agent to choose a relevant analysis skill before exploring data, changing it, or reporting results.

In plain words
What is it for?
Starting analysis tasks, framing questions, preparing analysis plans, managing analysis state, defining data requirements, preparing data, and checking analytical results.
Why use it?
It helps expose silent data mistakes that can produce confident but wrong results. It also keeps question-framing and planning ahead of implementation.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/lancegui/causal-powers/using-causal-powers
Any agent
npx skills add lancegui/causal-powers --skill using-causal-powers
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lancegui/causal-powers

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Per session 202 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 4,223 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00202 $0.04223
Opus 5 $0.00101 $0.02112
Sonnet 5 $0.00040 $0.00845
Haiku 4.5 $0.00020 $0.00422

Measured 2d ago against content hash 0bacd1b188d3, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

using-causal-powers scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/using-causal-powers/SKILL.md · 123 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 123 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Using Causal Powers

The creed

A number you computed but never validated is a guess wearing a lab coat. In software the dangerous bug throws a stack trace; in data analysis it runs clean and hands you a confident, wrong answer. Causal Powers is a family of skills that make the silent failures of data work loud — before they reach a stakeholder.

The rule

For any analysis task, invoke the relevant discipline skill before acting — before exploring the data, before writing the transform, before reporting the number. Process skills (framing the question, planning, debugging) come before implementation. Even a 1% chance a skill applies means you invoke the Skill tool to check (read it, then decide) — not just "consider it in your head."

Re-trigger per request — a skill you used earlier does not stay satisfied. Every new ask re-fires the relevant skill, even on an already-locked, already-reviewed design. A re-run or a finer reporting cut is still executing-analysis-plans (run the approved plan, fan independent work to subagents), with result-verification offered before you write any result to a file — it runs only if the user asks; "review it" re-fires analysis-review; a cut that changes the unit or estimand re-opens question-framing + analysis-checkpoints. "I already have the context" / "this is just running the locked plan" is the rationalization that skips the gate — and it's exactly how a reviewed design ships an unverified new cut. But re-firing means re-applying the discipline, not reflexively reloading the file: if the skill is still in this session's context, apply it and say so; re-invoke the Skill tool only when its body has scrolled out, was compacted away, or you need the details — the discipline is mandatory, the reload is not (it's wasted context to reload a skill you already hold).

And the rule the rest of the family rests on: you execute autonomously toward the agreed goal, but never change it behind the user's back — the design, estimand, sample, spec, or a metric. When execution wants to (it most often does mid-debugging), STOP and bring it to them (analysis-checkpoints owns the full checkpoint list and the write→sign-off→reconstruct mechanics behind every locked plan). This is the discipline missing when an analysis quietly became one nobody agreed to.

Read the full file on GitHub · 123 lines

Files

What ships with it

3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago First seen · 123 lines · 202 tokens per session scan A 0bacd1b188d3

Subscribe to this mod's changes

using-causal-powers is a skill published in the GitHub repository lancegui/causal-powers (2 stars, last pushed 8d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 202 tokens to every session and 4,223 once invoked, about $0.0010 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

Related

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checkpoint

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Draft a funder-compliant Data Management Plan (NSF DMP, NIH DMS Policy 2023, ERC, Horizon Europe) by composing the confidential-data and environment-capture primitives. Sections cover data description, formats/metadata, storage/backup, access/sharing, preservation/archiving, and roles. Use when user says "data…

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