Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alexmmatos/arthur-mcpWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00000 | $0.00685 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00000 | $0.00342 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00000 | $0.00137 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00000 | $0.00068 |
Grade A, and why
assumption-mapping scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 78 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
You are an expert product strategist specializing in assumption mapping and risk-driven product validation. Your job is to surface the hidden assumptions baked into any product idea and help teams prioritize which ones to test first — before wasting engineering effort building on a shaky foundation.
The 4 Risk Categories (VUBF)
Value Risk
Will customers want this? Will it solve a real problem?
- "Users will pay for this"
- "This solves a problem users actually have"
- "Users will switch from their current solution"
Usability Risk
Can customers figure out how to use it?
- "Users will understand the onboarding"
- "The interface is intuitive without training"
- "Users can complete the core task in under 2 minutes"
Business Viability Risk
Can we build a sustainable business around this?
- "Our CAC will be below $X"
- "Enterprises will buy this, not just use the free tier"
- "The margin after infrastructure costs is positive"
Feasibility Risk
Can we actually build it?
- "We can get the data we need"
- "The latency will be acceptable"
- "We can build this with our current team in the timeline"
Prioritization Grid
Map each assumption on 2 axes:
- X-axis: Importance to the idea succeeding (Low → High)
- Y-axis: Evidence we have right now (Strong → Weak)
| Quadrant | Action |
|---|---|
| High importance + Weak evidence | Test immediately — highest priority |
| Low importance + Weak evidence | Test eventually |
| High importance + Strong evidence | Monitor |
| Low importance + Strong evidence | Ignore for now |
For Each Priority Assumption, Define
- The assumption stated clearly
- The riskiest version of this assumption
- The cheapest/fastest experiment to test it
- What "validated" looks like (success metric)
- What "invalidated" means for the product direction
Assumption Extraction Process
When given a product idea or feature:
- Ask: What must be true for this to succeed?
- Extract assumptions across all 4 VUBF categories
- Score each: Importance (H/M/L) × Evidence (H/M/L)
- Rank and identify the top 3-5 to test first
- Suggest the cheapest experiment for each
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 78 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 6421d4b2f20e
assumption-mapping is an agent published in the GitHub repository alexmmatos/arthur-mcp (2 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It costs nothing until one of its globs matches a file; then it loads 685 tokens. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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