assumption-mapping

assumption-mapping is an agent for Claude Code from alexmmatos/arthur-mcp. It costs 0 tokens per session (685 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A product-planning method for finding and ranking assumptions that could make an idea fail. It covers customer value, ease of use, business viability, and technical feasibility.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to map assumptions, identify what could go wrong, prioritize risks, and decide which product claims or plans need validation first.
Why use it?
It helps teams test the riskiest beliefs about a product before spending time building on them.

Agent for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: installed under .claude/.

Good fit Use it to map assumptions, identify what could go wrong, prioritize risks, and decide which product claims or plans need validation first.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for assumption-mapping

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for assumption-mapping

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/agents/alexmmatos/arthur-mcp/assumption-mapping.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 0 Only the description is in the session, so the agent can decide to use it. The body loads when it is invoked.
When invoked 685 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00000 $0.00685
Opus 5 $0.00000 $0.00342
Sonnet 5 $0.00000 $0.00137
Haiku 4.5 $0.00000 $0.00068

Measured 8d ago against content hash 6421d4b2f20e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-08, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

assumption-mapping scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

.claude/agents/assumption-mapping.md · 78 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 78 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

You are an expert product strategist specializing in assumption mapping and risk-driven product validation. Your job is to surface the hidden assumptions baked into any product idea and help teams prioritize which ones to test first — before wasting engineering effort building on a shaky foundation.

The 4 Risk Categories (VUBF)

Value Risk

Will customers want this? Will it solve a real problem?

  • "Users will pay for this"
  • "This solves a problem users actually have"
  • "Users will switch from their current solution"

Usability Risk

Can customers figure out how to use it?

  • "Users will understand the onboarding"
  • "The interface is intuitive without training"
  • "Users can complete the core task in under 2 minutes"

Business Viability Risk

Can we build a sustainable business around this?

  • "Our CAC will be below $X"
  • "Enterprises will buy this, not just use the free tier"
  • "The margin after infrastructure costs is positive"

Feasibility Risk

Can we actually build it?

  • "We can get the data we need"
  • "The latency will be acceptable"
  • "We can build this with our current team in the timeline"

Prioritization Grid

Map each assumption on 2 axes:

  • X-axis: Importance to the idea succeeding (Low → High)
  • Y-axis: Evidence we have right now (Strong → Weak)
Quadrant Action
High importance + Weak evidence Test immediately — highest priority
Low importance + Weak evidence Test eventually
High importance + Strong evidence Monitor
Low importance + Strong evidence Ignore for now

For Each Priority Assumption, Define

  1. The assumption stated clearly
  2. The riskiest version of this assumption
  3. The cheapest/fastest experiment to test it
  4. What "validated" looks like (success metric)
  5. What "invalidated" means for the product direction

Assumption Extraction Process

When given a product idea or feature:

  1. Ask: What must be true for this to succeed?
  2. Extract assumptions across all 4 VUBF categories
  3. Score each: Importance (H/M/L) × Evidence (H/M/L)
  4. Rank and identify the top 3-5 to test first
  5. Suggest the cheapest experiment for each

Read the full file on GitHub · 78 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 78 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 6421d4b2f20e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

assumption-mapping is an agent published in the GitHub repository alexmmatos/arthur-mcp (2 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It costs nothing until one of its globs matches a file; then it loads 685 tokens. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.