mental-models

You were invoked as a slash command. The user's input:

$ARGUMENTS

Use that input to fill this prompt's variables (take the main content, topic, or task from it; ask only if a required value is missing and not supplied), then follow the prompt exactly.

Analyze this using relevant mental models: {problem}

Context: {context}

Pick the 3-5 mental models that genuinely illuminate THIS problem (not a generic list), and apply each concretely:

• For each model: name it, state it in a sentence, then apply it to my specific situation and say what it reveals: an insight, a risk, a reframe I would miss otherwise.
• Draw from the useful ones as they fit: inversion (what would guarantee failure?), opportunity cost, second-order effects, incentives (who is motivated to do what?), first principles, the map is not the territory, base rates, margin of safety, Occam's razor, sunk cost, leverage points, bottlenecks, and others that suit the problem.
• Where models disagree or pull in different directions, say so: the tension is often where the real insight is.

Finish with the synthesis: what the models together suggest, and the 1-2 that matter most here.

Rules: apply models to my actual situation, do not just define them (a definition helps nobody; the application is the value). Pick for relevance, not to show off breadth. Be honest where a model does not fit or would mislead. The goal is a clearer, less biased view of the problem, so surface what my own framing is hiding.