scenario-plan

/scenario-plan — Financial Scenario Planning

What This Command Does

Builds structured financial scenario models with clearly defined assumptions, probability weightings, and decision trees. Compares outcomes across scenarios to support strategic decision-making. Identifies key variables that most influence outcomes and defines trigger points for scenario reassessment.

When to Use

• Strategic planning and board strategy sessions
• Market disruption response planning
• Investment decision analysis under uncertainty
• Risk management and contingency planning
• Capital allocation decisions
• Business continuity financial planning

How It Works

1. Variable Identification: Maps key drivers that differ across scenarios
2. Scenario Definition: Defines base, upside, and downside (or custom) scenarios with narrative
3. Assumption Setting: Quantifies each driver per scenario
4. Financial Modeling: Projects P&L, cash flow, and key metrics per scenario
5. Probability Weighting: Assigns probabilities and calculates expected values
6. Sensitivity Analysis: Identifies which variables have the largest impact on outcomes
7. Decision Framework: Maps scenarios to strategic actions and trigger points

Example Usage

Input:

/scenario-plan topic:"European market expansion decision" scenarios:3 horizon:3-year

Output:

# Scenario Planning — European Market Expansion
## Decision: Enter DACH market via own subsidiary | Horizon: 2026–2028

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
## Scenario Definitions
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

| Scenario  | Narrative                               | Probability |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------|-------------|
| Bull      | Fast adoption, weak competition, strong EUR | 25%      |
| Base      | Steady growth, moderate competition     | 50%         |
| Bear      | Slow adoption, price war, regulatory delays | 25%      |

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
## Key Driver Assumptions
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

| Driver                  | Bull    | Base    | Bear    |
|-------------------------|---------|---------|---------|
| Year 1 customers        | 80      | 50      | 25      |
| Customer growth rate    | 60%/yr  | 40%/yr  | 15%/yr  |
| ARPU (EUR K/yr)         | 45      | 40      | 35      |
| Sales cycle (months)    | 3       | 5       | 8       |
| Customer churn          | 8%      | 12%     | 20%     |
| Gross margin            | 75%     | 70%     | 62%     |
| EUR/USD rate            | 1.15    | 1.08    | 1.02    |
| Headcount needed (Yr 1) | 12      | 15      | 15      |

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
## Financial Projections by Scenario
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

### Bull Case (25% probability)
| EUR M          | 2026   | 2027   | 2028   | Cumulative |
|----------------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Revenue        | 2.7    | 6.8    | 14.2   | 23.7       |
| EBITDA         | (1.5)  | 1.2    | 5.1    | 4.8        |
| Cumulative CF  | (3.2)  | (2.5)  | 1.8    |            |
| Breakeven      |        |        | Q2'28  |            |

### Base Case (50% probability)
| EUR M          | 2026   | 2027   | 2028   | Cumulative |
|----------------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Revenue        | 1.5    | 3.8    | 7.5    | 12.8       |
| EBITDA         | (2.2)  | (0.8)  | 1.8    | (1.2)      |
| Cumulative CF  | (3.8)  | (5.0)  | (3.8)  |            |
| Breakeven      |        |        | Q4'28  |            |

### Bear Case (25% probability)
| EUR M          | 2026   | 2027   | 2028   | Cumulative |
|----------------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Revenue        | 0.6    | 1.2    | 2.0    | 3.8        |
| EBITDA         | (2.8)  | (2.5)  | (2.0)  | (7.3)      |
| Cumulative CF  | (4.5)  | (7.2)  | (9.5)  |            |
| Breakeven      |        |        | Not reached |        |

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
## Expected Value & Decision Matrix
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

| Metric              | Prob-Weighted Value | Risk          |
|---------------------|---------------------|---------------|
| Expected NPV (3yr)  | EUR (0.8M)          | Marginal      |
| Expected NPV (5yr)  | EUR 4.2M            | Positive      |
| Max cash outlay     | EUR 9.5M (bear)     | Manageable    |
| Probability of loss | 35%                 | Moderate      |

### Decision: CONDITIONAL GO
Proceed if: (1) initial investment capped at EUR 5M, (2) 12-month review
gate at 30+ customers triggers full scale-up or exit, (3) partner
distribution model considered to reduce bear-case downside.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
## Trigger Points for Reassessment
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

| Trigger                    | Action if triggered              |
|----------------------------|----------------------------------|
| < 20 customers by month 9  | Activate exit plan               |
| > 60 customers by month 9  | Accelerate investment            |
| Churn > 18% in any quarter | Pause expansion, fix product fit |
| Competitor enters at -30%  | Reassess pricing strategy        |