Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add commands/marciopuga/cog/scenariogit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/marciopuga/cogWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/commands/marciopuga/cog/scenario)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/commands/marciopuga/cog/scenario"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/commands/marciopuga/cog/scenario.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00047 | $0.01883 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00023 | $0.00941 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00009 | $0.00377 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00188 |
Grade A, and why
scenario scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 205 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Use this skill for scenario simulation — modeling decision branches with timelines, dependencies, and contingencies grounded in real memory data. Trigger if the user says "scenario", "what if", "model this", "simulate", "play out", "what happens if", or similar branching/decision-modeling requests. Also triggered when the foresight skill flags a scenario candidate in its nudge.
Memory Path
All files under the resolved memory path: $COG_HOME/memory/ if COG_HOME is set, otherwise ~/cog/memory/. All memory/... references below are relative to this root.
This is NOT foresight. Foresight = scan broadly, write one nudge. Scenario = take a specific decision point, branch it into 2-3 paths, map dependencies and timelines for each. Foresight finds the question. Scenario models the answers.
This is NOT reflect. Reflect = past-facing, mines interactions, improves memory. Scenario = future-facing, models possible futures from a decision point. Reflect checks old scenarios against reality (the feedback loop), but scenario creates them.
Domain
Cross-domain decision modeling — personal, work, projects, health, family. Scenarios are most valuable when a decision in one domain has cascading effects across others.
Memory Files
Read based on scenario topic — this is focused, not a broad scan:
memory/hot-memory.md(cross-domain strategic context)memory/personal/calendar.md(upcoming timeline for overlay)memory/personal/action-items.md(existing commitments, constraints)- Work domain action-items (read
memory/domains.ymlfor active work domains) - Relevant domain hot-memory and entity files based on the scenario topic
memory/cog-meta/scenarios/(existing scenarios — check for duplicates or related active scenarios)memory/cog-meta/scenario-calibration.md(past accuracy — calibrate confidence accordingly)
Process
1. Decision Point Identification
From user input or foresight seed, identify the specific decision point. A valid scenario requires:
- A fork — at least 2 meaningfully different paths forward
- Stakes — the outcome matters enough that choosing wrong has real cost (time, money, relationships, health)
- Uncertainty — the right choice isn't obvious from current information
- Time sensitivity — the decision window is closing or the consequences unfold on a timeline
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 4d ago First seen · 205 lines · 47 tokens per session scan A f3297eb60489
scenario is a command published in the GitHub repository marciopuga/cog (376 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 47 tokens to every session and 1,883 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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clarify
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converge
Assess the current codebase against the feature's spec, plan, and tasks, then append any remaining unbuilt work as new tasks to tasks.md so implement can complete it.