record-outcome

Record Outcome

Most AI tools forget every deal the moment the session ends. OloLand's flywheel does the opposite: it captures what the model predicted, then — once the deal closes and 12+ months of realized data exist — scores those predictions against reality. That accuracy history is what lets /calibrate-vs-history say "your firm overestimates revenue growth by 7pp in deals like this."

That read side only works if the write side is fed. This command is the write side. It does two things:

1. Mints predictions (if the deal doesn't have them yet) by running the deterministic engines and a forecast run — so there is something concrete to grade later.
2. Records realized actuals and closes the loop — stamping an accuracy score on each enterprise_value / irr / moic prediction.

Usage

/record-outcome <deal_id>

Two distinct moments call for it:

• At underwriting / IC — mint the predictions so the deal is on the books to be graded later. (Steps 1-3 below; skip the actuals.)
• Post-close (12+ months out) — record the realized exit and close the loop. (Steps 4-5 below.)

Arguments

• <deal_id> (required) — the deal to mint predictions for and/or record actuals against.

Execution

The instructions below are for the model executing this command.

Decide the path first — and run only one. This command has two mutually exclusive paths: A. mint predictions (IC / underwriting time) and B. record actuals (post-close). Work out which moment the user is in and run only that path. Never run A then B in the same pass.

Why (look-ahead guardrail — this is load-bearing): a prediction is only meaningful if it was made before the outcome was known. If you mint a forecast at post-close — from a snapshot that already reflects how the deal turned out — and then score it against the known actuals, you fabricate an artificially-accurate "IC-time" prediction and poison the calibration / similar-deal corpus that /calibrate-vs-history depends on. So: only mint (A) when the outcome is genuinely unknown. In the post-close path (B) you do not mint — if no IC-time predictions exist, that deal simply doesn't get a graded score, and that is the correct, honest result (see step 5). Note that record_deal_actuals may return a backend hint like "run create_forecast_run first" when 0 predictions close — do not follow that hint post-close; it is only valid at IC time.