cohort-curve-model

cohort-curve-model is a cursor rule for Cursor from mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills. It costs 111 tokens per session (945 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A model that fits a curve to real customer-retention data by tracking how many users remain active over successive periods. It uses that curve to project long-term retention and, when revenue is supplied, customer lifetime value.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it with cohort data, where groups of customers are measured month by month, to assess retention, project future active users, and estimate lifetime value.
Why use it?
A few retention numbers do not show whether customer loss is slowing or continuing. Fitting the observed pattern makes the long-term assumption visible and testable.

Cursor rule for Cursor

Written for Cursor: a Cursor rule (.mdc).

Needs its repository: it runs a file that does not travel with it, so clone the repository first. The line is python3 scripts/cohort_model.py fit cohorts.xlsx --observed '[100,62,48,41,37,34,32]' --arpu 40 --horizon 24.

Good fit Use it with cohort data, where groups of customers are measured month by month, to assess retention, project future active users, and estimate lifetime value.

Compare 6 cursor rules from other repositories ↓
About the project

PM Skills is a collection of plain-Markdown instructions that teach AI assistants structured methods for handling professional, personal, and life-admin tasks. People use it with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Cursor, Codex, and other supported agents for work such as writing product requirements, reviewing documents, or planning difficult situations.

mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills · 1,357 stars · on GitHub · mohitagw15856.github.io

Install

Getting it into your agent

It runs from inside its repository, so the clone comes first — what it calls does not travel with the file alone.

Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills
agentmods
npx agentmods add rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model

Made for: Cursor.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for cohort-curve-model

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for cohort-curve-model

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/cohort-curve-model.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 111 Only the description is in the session, so the agent can decide to use it. The body loads when it is invoked.
When invoked 945 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00111 $0.00945
Opus 5 $0.00056 $0.00473
Sonnet 5 $0.00022 $0.00189
Haiku 4.5 $0.00011 $0.00094

Measured 8d ago against content hash fdaae16476a0, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

cohort-curve-model scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

exports/cursor/pm-calculators/cohort-curve-model/cohort-curve-model.mdc · 51 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 51 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Cohort Curve Model

Retention data has a shape, and the shape is the business. This skill fits the standard consumer-retention power curve r(t) = a·t^(−b) to observed cohort data by log-log least squares — actual arithmetic run by the bundled script, not model vibes — then projects it forward and prices it.

Required Inputs

  • Observed retention by period — from period 0 (100%) through at least period 3-4. Percent or fraction, either works. More periods = a trustworthy fit; 4 is the floor.
  • ARPU per period (optional) — revenue per retained user per period. Without it, LTV is reported in lifetime-period multiples instead of currency.
  • Projection horizon (optional, default 24 periods).

If the requester has cohort tables (rows of cohorts × months), take the average by period-age or fit the most recent complete cohort — say which you did.

Output Format

  1. The fit — a (scale), b (decay), R² of the log-log fit, and the observed tail floor. Interpret b plainly: b < 0.5 = strong flattening, a habit is forming; 0.5–1 = normal decay; b > 1 = leaky bucket, the curve never accumulates a base.
  2. The projection — observed vs fitted by period, marked where observation ends and projection begins.
  3. The money — lifetime periods (Σ fitted retention over the horizon) and LTV = ARPU × lifetime periods.
  4. The caveat that matters most — if R² < 0.9, say the power family fits poorly and the projection should be distrusted beyond the observed tail.

Programmatic Helper

This skill ships scripts/cohort_model.pyzero dependencies (stdlib zip+XML). The math and the workbook both come from the script; run it rather than computing by hand:

python3 scripts/cohort_model.py fit cohorts.xlsx --observed '[100,62,48,41,37,34,32]' --arpu 40 --horizon 24

It prints the fit (a=0.619 b=0.371 R²=1.000 lifetime≈7.7 periods LTV≈308) and writes an .xlsx with a Model sheet (parameters + an editable ARPU cell wired to LTV by a live formula) and a Curve sheet (observed vs fitted vs projected). Requires a code-execution environment.

Read the full file on GitHub · 51 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 51 lines · 111 tokens per session scan A fdaae16476a0

Subscribe to this mod's changes

cohort-curve-model is a cursor rule published in the GitHub repository mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills (1,357 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 111 tokens to every session and 945 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.