outcome-tracker

outcome-tracker is a cursor rule for Cursor from mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills. It costs 95 tokens per session (1,374 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A system for recording predictions made in decisions and checking them against later results. It can track whether forecasts or plans were correct, partly correct, wrong, or impossible to assess.

In plain words
What is it for?
It helps record measurable predictions from prioritisation tables, forecasts, launch plans, or OKRs, then review them on a chosen date. It can also calculate calibration—the match between stated confidence and actual results—over time.
Why use it?
Teams often make forecasts and prioritisation choices without later checking whether they came true. This creates a record and review process so decision methods can be judged by outcomes.

Cursor rule for Cursor

Written for Cursor: a Cursor rule (.mdc).

Needs its repository: it runs a file that does not travel with it, so clone the repository first. The line is python3 scripts/outcome_calibration.py predictions.json.

Good fit It helps record measurable predictions from prioritisation tables, forecasts, launch plans, or OKRs, then review them on a chosen date. It can also calculate calibration—the match between stated confidence and actual results—over time.

Compare 6 cursor rules from other repositories ↓
About the project

PM Skills is a collection of plain-Markdown instructions that teach AI assistants structured methods for handling professional, personal, and life-admin tasks. People use it with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Cursor, Codex, and other supported agents for work such as writing product requirements, reviewing documents, or planning difficult situations.

mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills · 1,352 stars · on GitHub · mohitagw15856.github.io

Install

Getting it into your agent

It runs from inside its repository, so the clone comes first — what it calls does not travel with the file alone.

Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills
agentmods
npx agentmods add rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker

Made for: Cursor.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for outcome-tracker

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for outcome-tracker

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/rules/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills/outcome-tracker.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 95 Only the description is in the session, so the agent can decide to use it. The body loads when it is invoked.
When invoked 1,374 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00095 $0.01374
Opus 5 $0.00048 $0.00687
Sonnet 5 $0.00019 $0.00275
Haiku 4.5 $0.00010 $0.00137

Measured 7d ago against content hash ead818aca2df, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

outcome-tracker scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

exports/cursor/pm-autopilot/outcome-tracker/outcome-tracker.mdc · 90 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 90 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Outcome Tracker Skill

Every prioritisation, forecast, and launch plan makes predictions — then everyone forgets to check them. This skill closes the loop: extract the predictions at decision time, park them somewhere durable, and score them against reality on a schedule. Over time it answers the question no one can answer today: which of our frameworks actually predict outcomes?

What This Skill Produces

  • At decision time: a prediction record — each claim made falsifiable, with a metric, a direction/target, a check-by date, and a stated confidence
  • At review time: an outcome scoring of due predictions (hit / miss / partial / unresolvable), with what was learned
  • On demand: a calibration report — per-framework and per-confidence-band hit rates from the accumulated records

Required Inputs

Ask for (if not already provided):

  • Mode — record (new decision), review (score due predictions), or calibrate (analyse the history)
  • Record mode: the decision artifact (RICE table, forecast, launch plan, OKR set) and where records live (a predictions/ folder in the Brain, or a JSON/markdown file in the repo)
  • Review mode: the stored predictions plus current metric values for the due ones
  • Calibrate mode: the prediction history (the calculator below reads it as JSON)

Making Claims Falsifiable (record mode)

Walk the artifact and force each implicit claim into this shape — a prediction that can't fill the row doesn't get recorded, it gets flagged as untestable:

Field Rule
claim One sentence, future tense, about a measurable effect ("onboarding redesign lifts activation")
metric The exact instrumented metric, with today's baseline
predicted Direction + magnitude band ("+10-20% relative") — bands beat point estimates
confidence 0.5–0.95, from the author, recorded before the outcome is knowable
check_by The date the effect should be visible if real; also the review trigger
framework What produced the claim (rice-prioritisation, gut call, sales-forecasting-model…) — this is what calibration is about

Read the full file on GitHub · 90 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 7d ago First seen · 90 lines · 95 tokens per session scan A ead818aca2df

Subscribe to this mod's changes

outcome-tracker is a cursor rule published in the GitHub repository mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills (1,352 stars, last pushed 3d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 95 tokens to every session and 1,374 once invoked, about $0.0005 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.