pm-manipulation

pm-manipulation is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from aaronjmars/aeon-agent. It costs 32 tokens per session (3,702 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of pm-manipulation, MIT.

An investigation workflow for suspected manipulation in prediction markets, where people trade contracts linked to future outcomes. It compares recent prices, trading volume, comments, and news in multiple languages.

In plain words
What is it for?
It helps examine the previous three days of market activity, find price or volume anomalies, and check whether local or multilingual reporting offers an explanation.
Why use it?
English-language reporting may miss early regional narratives, while unusual market activity alone does not prove manipulation. The comparison helps separate possible coordinated activity from ordinary news-driven movement.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: mentions CLAUDE.md.

Good fit It helps examine the previous three days of market activity, find price or volume anomalies, and check whether local or multilingual reporting offers an explanation.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/aaronjmars/aeon-agent/pm-manipulation
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add aaronjmars/aeon-agent --skill pm-manipulation
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon-agent

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for pm-manipulation

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/aaronjmars/aeon-agent/pm-manipulation.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/aaronjmars/aeon-agent/pm-manipulation)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/aaronjmars/aeon-agent/pm-manipulation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/aaronjmars/aeon-agent/pm-manipulation.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 32 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 3,702 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 1 finding. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 100% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00032 $0.03702
Opus 5 $0.00016 $0.01851
Sonnet 5 $0.00006 $0.00740
Haiku 4.5 $0.00003 $0.00370

Measured 3d ago against content hash b831a6b4547a, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-08, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

pm-manipulation scanned grade A with 1 finding against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 3d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Makes network callslowCapability

Not a fault in itself. Listed so you know the mod talks to something, and to what.

`curl` works — there is no network sandbox. For every curl call, if it fails or returns empty, use **WebFetch** as a fallback for a flaky public GET. The Polymarket APIs above are public (no auth). For news searches, pre
Origin

This is a copy

100% identical to pm-manipulation — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

skills/pm-manipulation/SKILL.md · 262 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 262 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. Read the last 3 days of memory/logs/ to avoid re-flagging markets you already covered, and to compare current readings against prior ones.

Voice

If soul/SOUL.md and soul/STYLE.md are populated, match the operator's voice in the notification and write-up. If empty or absent, use a clear, direct, neutral tone. The methodology itself is the same either way.

Why this skill exists

English-language coverage of any prediction market is dense for US politics, sparse for everything else. Election-, geopolitics-, and conflict-related markets are most often pushed by actors closer to the home country than to the English-speaking financial press. By the time a coordinated narrative lands in mainstream financial outlets, the trade is over. Local-language press, regional outlets, and country-specific Telegram / X channels move first — sometimes by 24–72h.

This skill looks at the past 3 days of activity on a configurable prediction-market platform and asks: where does the price action diverge from organic English-press coverage, and does a multilingual sweep reveal a narrative push that explains it?

Configuration

Read memory/topics/prediction-markets.md if it exists for an optional ## Platform line naming the target API root. Defaults to Polymarket's public Gamma + CLOB APIs (gamma-api.polymarket.com, clob.polymarket.com, data-api.polymarket.com). The candidate selection, scoring rubric, and multilingual sweep are platform-agnostic; only the endpoints differ.

The keyword filter and locale table below are starting points — the operator can edit memory/topics/prediction-markets.md to add ## Keywords and ## Locales sections that override the defaults.

Network note

curl works — there is no network sandbox. For every curl call, if it fails or returns empty, use WebFetch as a fallback for a flaky public GET. The Polymarket APIs above are public (no auth). For news searches, prefer WebSearch with locale-specific queries — a built-in Claude tool that needs no curl.

Read the full file on GitHub · 262 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 3d ago First seen · 262 lines · 32 tokens per session scan A b831a6b4547a

Subscribe to this mod's changes

pm-manipulation is a skill published in the GitHub repository aaronjmars/aeon-agent (11 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 32 tokens to every session and 3,702 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 1 finding (makes network calls). It is 100% identical to pm-manipulation, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.

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