unlock-monitor

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on market positions and active narratives. Read the last 7 days of memory/logs/ to dedup against any unlock already covered. Read memory/state/unlock-monitor-seen.json if present — a list of ${ticker}:${unlock_date} keys already shipped. Skip exact matches; if file is absent, treat as empty.

Core thesis

The original skill ranked unlocks by % of circulating supply. That's a weak proxy. The right metric is Absorption Ratio = unlock_dollar_value / 7-day avg daily volume. Keyrock's analysis of 16k+ unlocks shows that ratios above ~2.4× consistently strain liquidity and produce measurable price drawdown. Below ~0.5× the market typically yawns. This skill ranks by absorption ratio first, supply % second, and folds in cliff-vs-linear structure plus pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.

Steps

1. Gather candidate unlocks

Run these WebSearches in parallel:

• "token unlock schedule" "${week_of}" site:tokenomist.ai OR site:defillama.com
• "token unlock" "this week" cliff vesting team investor ${current_year}
• "upcoming unlocks" cryptorank OR dropstab ${current_year}
• "FTX distribution" OR "Mt. Gox" OR "Celsius" OR "creditor payout" crypto ${current_year} (court-ordered supply shocks count)
• "$10M" OR "$50M" OR "$100M" token unlock ${week_of} (dollar-value angle catches what supply % misses)

Also fetch (WebFetch fallback if any URL fails):

• https://tokenomist.ai — primary, source-verified across 500+ tokens with cliff/linear labeling
• https://defillama.com/unlocks — DeFi protocols, with $ values
• https://cryptorank.io/token-unlock — broad coverage, recipient-category labeled
• https://dropstab.com/vesting — alternative cross-source verification
• https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/incoming-token-unlocks — Tokenomist-powered