edge

edge is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from alsk1992/CloddsBot. It costs 14 tokens per session (529 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A market-analysis tool that compares prediction-market prices with outside forecasts, polls, betting odds, and other models. A prediction market lets people trade contracts tied to possible future events.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to scan political, economic, or sports markets, compare a specific market with external data, and calculate a potential Kelly-based stake.
Why use it?
It helps identify cases where a market price differs from an outside estimate. It can also calculate a suggested stake using the Kelly formula, which relates bet size to estimated probability and odds.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/edge
Any agent
npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill edge
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for edge

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/edge.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/edge)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/edge"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/edge.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 14 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 529 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00014 $0.00529
Opus 5 $0.00007 $0.00264
Sonnet 5 $0.00003 $0.00106
Haiku 4.5 $0.00001 $0.00053

Measured 5d ago against content hash 17cd3caf3146, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

edge scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 1 executable file (index.ts), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

src/skills/bundled/edge/SKILL.md · 88 lines

What it actually says

Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

Commands

Scan for Edge

/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed

Compare Specific Market

/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi

Kelly Calculator

/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll

Data Sources

Political

  • 538/Silver Bulletin - Election models
  • RealClearPolitics - Polling averages
  • Betting Odds - Pinnacle, offshore books
  • PredictIt - Alternative market prices

Economic

  • CME FedWatch - Rate probabilities
  • Bloomberg Consensus - Economist forecasts
  • Treasury Yields - Implied expectations

Sports

  • Vegas Lines - Sharp money indicators
  • ESPN FPI - Power rankings
  • Historical Models - ELO ratings

Examples

User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

Output Format

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll
Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 5d ago First seen · 88 lines · 14 tokens per session scan A 17cd3caf3146

Subscribe to this mod's changes

edge is a skill published in the GitHub repository alsk1992/CloddsBot (869 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 14 tokens to every session and 529 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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