research

research is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from alsk1992/CloddsBot. It costs 14 tokens per session (429 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A research assistant for prediction markets, where people trade contracts tied to future events. It uses historical base rates, resolution rules, and similar past events to examine market questions.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to research political, economic, sports, and event markets, look up base rates, explain resolution criteria, and find historical analogies.
Why use it?
It helps replace a quick guess with relevant historical evidence and a clearer understanding of how a market contract will be settled.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to research political, economic, sports, and event markets, look up base rates, explain resolution criteria, and find historical analogies.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for research

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for research

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alsk1992/cloddsbot/research.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 14 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 429 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00014 $0.00429
Opus 5 $0.00007 $0.00215
Sonnet 5 $0.00003 $0.00086
Haiku 4.5 $0.00001 $0.00043

Measured 6d ago against content hash 9fe116d89927, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

research scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 6d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 1 executable file (index.ts), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

src/skills/bundled/research/SKILL.md · 84 lines

What it actually says

Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

Political Markets

  • Incumbent win rates by office type
  • Primary prediction accuracy
  • Polling vs outcome correlations
  • Electoral college patterns

Economic Markets

  • Fed rate decision patterns
  • Recession indicator accuracy
  • Inflation forecast track records
  • Employment report surprises

Sports/Events

  • Historical upset frequencies
  • Weather event base rates
  • Award show prediction accuracy

Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

Output Format

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 6d ago First seen · 84 lines · 14 tokens per session scan A 9fe116d89927

Subscribe to this mod's changes

research is a skill published in the GitHub repository alsk1992/CloddsBot (1,190 stars, last pushed 8d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 14 tokens to every session and 429 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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