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hypothesis-ledger

hypothesis-ledger is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from ALTEN-group/coding-pal. It costs 90 tokens per session (782 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A ledger for tracking outcome hypotheses, which are testable beliefs about what a feature or change will achieve. It records the observed measure, calculates a proposed result, and leaves the final decision to the product owner.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to record hypotheses, find reviews that are due, calculate proposed verdicts, and report validation and feature-deletion rates.
Why use it?
It prevents untested assumptions from disappearing after release and highlights features whose expected outcome was not supported and may need removal.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: reads .claude/ paths.

not rated 5repo 5d ago A scan 90 tokens original MIT

Good fit Use it to record hypotheses, find reviews that are due, calculate proposed verdicts, and report validation and feature-deletion rates.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger
View source ↗ ALTEN-group/coding-pal alten-group.github.io
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add ALTEN-group/coding-pal --skill hypothesis-ledger
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ALTEN-group/coding-pal

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for hypothesis-ledger

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for hypothesis-ledger

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/alten-group/coding-pal/hypothesis-ledger.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 90 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 782 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00090 $0.00782
Opus 5.5 $0.00036 $0.00313
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00018 $0.00156
Haiku 4.5 $0.00009 $0.00078

Measured 4d ago against content hash 8275cdbd51aa, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

hypothesis-ledger scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 3 executable files (scripts/ledger-fixture.mjs, scripts/ledger.mjs, scripts/ledger.test.mjs), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/hypothesis-ledger/SKILL.md · 58 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 58 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Hypothesis Ledger

Keep a ledger of every outcome bet and review it after its watch window. The script computes a proposed verdict with its maths. It never writes a verdict: the Product Owner decides, and an invalidated feature is deleted.

When to Use This Skill

  • A backlog issue names an outcome metric and the work item ships: add an Open row.
  • The weekly Outcome review needs the hypotheses due for a verdict and the invalidated features still waiting for deletion.
  • Someone has the observed metric and wants the proposed verdict with its maths before the review.
  • CI validates specs/learn/hypotheses.md on a pull request.
  • The monthly retrospective needs the hypothesis validation rate and the feature deletion rate.

Path resolution

Resolve references/ and scripts/ relative to this skill's install directory (the folder that contains this SKILL.md), not the consumer repository root or the current shell cwd. If the skill was installed under .agents/skills/hypothesis-ledger/ or .claude/skills/hypothesis-ledger/, use that base path.

Workflow

  1. Read references/hypothesis-ledger-contract.md now. It is the authoritative source for columns, verdicts, actions, and the proposal maths.
  2. Register a hypothesis when the work item ships (the row starts Open):
node scripts/ledger.mjs add --file specs/learn/hypotheses.md --issue 42 \
  --hypothesis "Order templates shorten order entry" --metric "Minutes per order" \
  --baseline 6 --target 3 --direction down --watch-ends 2026-11-30
  1. Before the Outcome review, list what is due and propose verdicts from the observed numbers:
node scripts/ledger.mjs due --file specs/learn/hypotheses.md --today 2026-12-01
node scripts/ledger.mjs propose --file specs/learn/hypotheses.md --issue 42 --observed 3.4
node scripts/ledger.mjs stats --file specs/learn/hypotheses.md
  1. Present each proposed verdict with its maths and suggested actions. Do not edit the Verdict, Action, or Decided cells. The Product Owner records them, as <name> (Product Owner) on YYYY-MM-DD, in a pull request.
  2. Validate the ledger after every human edit and in CI:

Read the full file on GitHub · 58 lines

Files

What ships with it

4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 4d ago First seen · 58 lines · 90 tokens per session scan A 8275cdbd51aa

Subscribe to this mod's changes

hypothesis-ledger is a skill published in the GitHub repository ALTEN-group/coding-pal (5 stars, last pushed 5d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 90 tokens to every session and 782 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-10-14.

Analytics and metricsProject management
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