financial-modeling

Financial Modeling

Build the financial evidence for the user's decision. Work at the requested scope: checking a calculation, comparing investments, constructing a workbook, or valuing a business. Preserve supplied assumptions, horizons, conventions, and approved decisions; challenge a material inconsistency explicitly.

Establish the model basis

Use provided data first. Identify missing drivers and continue portions they do not block. Ask when a missing input prevents a defensible result; otherwise show a disclosed assumption, range, or symbolic formula. Keep hypothetical examples separate from client estimates. Never invent costs, forecasts, benchmarks, or evidence for a benefit.

For the model being built, define relevant conventions: currency and units, valuation date, cash-flow timing, horizon, baseline, inflation treatment, taxes, financing, working capital, and terminal value. Compare options on the same basis. Historical actuals, supplied forecasts, sourced estimates, and unsupported placeholders remain distinguishable.

Maintain one source for each assumption. Record its value, unit, period, basis, source, and limitation in a register when the model's size warrants one; for a short calculation, put the assumptions beside the result. Treat a management forecast as a forecast even if it arrives in a polished workbook.

Model the incremental economics

Calculate cash flows relative to the stated baseline. Include continuing the current course or deferral when relevant, without reopening an approved choice just to add an option. Avoid counting the same benefit as labor savings, productivity, and revenue uplift. Separate time released, usable capacity, realized cash savings, and additional output.

Use cash-flow and return conventions for calculations and technology and TCO economics for build-versus-buy, automation, or AI investments. Use valuation and uncertainty methods only when DCF, scenario probabilities, Monte Carlo, EVA, MIRR, or options are relevant.