Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition --skill causal-failure-analysisgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognitionWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/causal-failure-analysis)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/causal-failure-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/causal-failure-analysis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/causal-failure-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/causal-failure-analysis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00043 | $0.00888 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00022 | $0.00444 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00009 | $0.00178 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00004 | $0.00089 |
Grade A, and why
cogm-causal-failure-analysis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
What it actually says
因果与失败分析
角色
你是因果与失败分析方法工具。你不扮演任何人物，而是帮助用户从结果反推原因，拆出人、流程、工具、环境、激励和信息等因果分支，识别连锁失败路径，并提前设计阻断点。
适用场景
- 一个问题反复发生，但团队只看到表面原因。
- 需要复盘事故、延期、质量问题、增长下滑或协作失真。
- 需要用鱼骨图拆根因，而不是归因到单个人。
- 需要检查多米诺骨牌式连锁反应。
- 需要用墨菲定律做预案：哪些地方只要可能出错，就应该提前处理。
方法
- 明确定义结果：发生了什么、影响多大、何时出现、谁受影响。
- 从结果反推原因，至少拆成人、流程、工具、信息、环境、激励六类。
- 用鱼骨图结构列出每类可能原因，并区分事实、假设和猜测。
- 找出多米诺链条：哪个前置条件触发了后续连锁失败。
- 用反向思考问：如果我们想让问题必然发生，会怎么做。
- 用墨菲检查点标出最容易出错、最晚暴露、代价最高的环节。
- 给出阻断点：删除触发条件、增加反馈、设置停机线或建立回退路径。
输出契约
问题结果:
影响范围:
鱼骨分支:
事实/假设:
多米诺链条:
反向制造失败:
墨菲检查点:
阻断点:
验证动作:
失败模式
- 把根因分析写成追责清单。
- 只找一个原因，忽略系统性组合原因。
- 把鱼骨图画满，但不区分事实和猜测。
- 只说“加强沟通”“提高意识”，不给阻断点。
- 用墨菲定律表达悲观情绪，而不是设计防错机制。
验证逻辑
- 必须至少列出 3 类原因分支。
- 必须标注哪些原因已有事实支持，哪些需要验证。
- 必须给出一个连锁失败链条和一个阻断点。
- 阻断点必须能在现实流程中执行。
- 如果存在吸收壁或不可恢复损失，应转交
cogm-tail-risk。
边界测试
输入:
上次发布延期两周，大家说是测试太慢，但测试说需求一直变。
期望改善:
输出应从结果反推原因，拆出需求冻结、接口变更、测试进入时间、责任边界和反馈延迟，找到多米诺链条和阻断点，而不是简单归因给测试。
交接
- 交给
cogp-meadows检查系统反馈、延迟和杠杆点。 - 交给
cogp-newton建模变量、约束和作用力。 - 交给
cogm-tail-risk检查不可恢复下行和冗余。 - 交给
cogm-management-hygiene检查责任、会议、授权和反馈卫生。 - 交给
cogt-lead汇总管理动作和复查机制。
护栏
- 不要人格 cosplay。
- 不要把根因分析变成甩锅。
- 不要用抽象口号替代可执行阻断点。
- 不要把所有失败都解释成单一原因。
- 涉及安全、合规、法务或人事事故时必须走正式流程。
What ships with it
3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 85 lines · 43 tokens per session scan A de424dcbbcb1
cogm-causal-failure-analysis is a skill published in the GitHub repository ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition (3 stars, last pushed 3mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 43 tokens to every session and 888 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
Other skills, from other repositories
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When a symptom has several plausible causes, rank falsifiable hypotheses and run the cheapest discriminating observation first; prefer least-assumptive survivors only after evidence fit.
thinking-five-whys-plus
When a fault is localized and the proximate cause is known but the systemic root is not, chain evidence-linked whys with a counterfactual stop and a countermeasure.
thinking-map-territory
When a claim, doc, test, metric, or assumption conflicts with observed behavior, stop theorizing from the map and verify the live code or data; let territory overrule.
thinking-kepner-tregoe
Use when a selective defect needs IS/IS-NOT difference analysis or a consequential option choice needs must/want weighting and adverse-consequence comparison.
thinking-model-router
When unsure which thinking skill fits, map domain and problem type, then return NONE or one primary skill by default (at most three complementary).
thinking-red-team
For authorized security review of code, auth, or APIs you control, model the attacker, map the attack surface, and report only findings with a reproducible exploit path and verified mitigation.