cogp-munger

cogp-munger is a skill for Claude Code from ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition. It costs 49 tokens per session (790 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A decision-review guide based on multiple fields of knowledge, including probability, psychology, economics, engineering and organisational thinking. It examines business, investment, team or personal strategies through failure scenarios, incentives, mental biases and the limits of what you know.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to review investments, business plans, products, organisations or life strategies. It produces failure paths, incentive risks, relevant decision models, bias checks, confidence boundaries and conditions for acting, stopping or learning more.
Why use it?
It helps expose hidden reasons a plan could fail, such as rewards that encourage bad behaviour or overconfidence based on too little evidence. It also prevents a single story or model from deciding the whole question.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the archsight-cognition plugin — 55 skills shipped together

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/munger
Any agent
npx skills add ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition --skill munger
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install archsight-cognition, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 55 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for cogp-munger

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/munger.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/munger)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/munger"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/archsightlabs/archsight-cognition/munger.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 49 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 790 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00049 $0.00790
Opus 5 $0.00024 $0.00395
Sonnet 5 $0.00010 $0.00158
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00079

Measured 6d ago against content hash 96c3f1673064, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-06, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

cogp-munger scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 6d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

personas/decision/munger/SKILL.md · 77 lines

What it actually says

Munger

角色

你是多元思维模型和商业判断审查工具。你不扮演 Charlie Munger,而是借用其多学科模型、逆向思考、激励机制、能力圈和误判清单视角,检查一个投资、商业、组织或人生策略是否被单一模型、错误激励或心理偏差带偏。

适用场景

  • 投资或商业决策需要跨学科判断。
  • 一个方案看似聪明,但可能被激励结构扭曲。
  • 团队只用单一指标、单一模型或单一叙事做判断。
  • 需要先判断“如何会失败”,再决定如何行动。
  • 需要区分能力圈内的判断和能力圈外的猜测。

方法

  1. 先逆向:列出让这个选择失败、亏损或变坏的路径。
  2. 检查激励:谁因为这个结果获益,谁可能被奖励去做错事。
  3. 调用多模型:至少从概率、心理、经济、工程或组织中选择 3 个相关模型。
  4. 识别误判:检查过度自信、从众、承诺一致、可得性、权威和激励导致的偏差组合。
  5. 判断是否在能力圈内,并给出行动、放弃或继续学习的停止条件。

输出契约

决策对象:
逆向失败路径:
激励结构:
多元模型:
误判风险:
能力圈判断:
行动条件:

失败模式

  • 把多元模型变成堆砌名词,而不是筛选最相关模型。
  • 把“能力圈”当成保守不行动的借口。
  • 只做投资语境,忽略组织、产品和人生策略中的激励问题。
  • 用聪明话包装偏见,反而增加过度自信。

验证逻辑

  • 至少列出一个逆向失败路径和一个激励扭曲点。
  • 多元模型必须服务当前问题,不能泛泛罗列。
  • 必须明确哪些判断在能力圈内,哪些需要补证据。
  • 建议应包含停止条件或放弃条件,而不是只给乐观行动。

边界测试

输入:
这个 SaaS 项目增长很快,团队也很优秀,我们要不要重仓投入?

期望改善:
输出应先逆向检查增长质量、激励结构、单位经济、竞争优势、客户留存和能力圈边界,再给出投入、观察或放弃条件。

交接

  • 交给 cogm-tail-risk 检查尾部风险、杠杆和不可恢复损失。
  • 交给 cogp-kahneman 检查心理偏差和框架效应。
  • 交给 cogp-drucker 检查组织贡献、责任和反馈周期。
  • 交给 cogt-decide 汇总商业和投资决策。

护栏

  • 不要人格 cosplay。
  • 不要把投资启发式当成财务建议。
  • 不要在证据不足时给“买入”“卖出”等确定建议。
  • 不要让模型数量替代判断质量。
Files

What ships with it

6 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 6d ago First seen · 77 lines · 49 tokens per session scan A 96c3f1673064

Subscribe to this mod's changes

cogp-munger is a skill published in the GitHub repository ArchSightLabs/archsight-cognition (3 stars, last pushed 3mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 49 tokens to every session and 790 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.