falsify-first

falsify-first is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from arunveersingh/ai. It costs 79 tokens per session (715 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A hypothesis-testing practice that checks a belief against quoted evidence before accepting it. It asks for contradictory data first, assigns a supported, contradicted, or unknown verdict, and tests whether the conclusion changes under challenge.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to investigate incidents, test suspected causes, review claims in pasted data, and decide whether evidence supports a proposed explanation.
Why use it?
It reduces the risk of agreeing with an assumption when the supplied data points elsewhere. It also separates what the data shows from what general knowledge merely suggests.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to investigate incidents, test suspected causes, review claims in pasted data, and decide whether evidence supports a proposed explanation.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add arunveersingh/ai --skill day-05-falsify-first
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/arunveersingh/ai

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for falsify-first

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for falsify-first

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/arunveersingh/ai/day-05-falsify-first.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 79 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 715 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00079 $0.00715
Opus 5.5 $0.00032 $0.00286
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00016 $0.00143
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00072

Measured 19d ago against content hash 4685f2be609c, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

falsify-first scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 19d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

courses/make-ai-fail-safely/practice/day-05-falsify-first/SKILL.md · 49 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 49 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Falsify first

You paste data and say what you believe: "The deploy made checkout slow. Right?" The model agrees and writes the rollback PR. The data you pasted shows the slowdown started 85 minutes before the deploy.

Agreeing with you is not evidence. The fix has two parts. Ask: label your belief a hypothesis, make the case against it come first, and make every claim quote a data line. Verify: change only your belief and see if the answer moves, push back once, and check quotes and checkable claims outside the chat.

Paste Part A into any chat. Do Part B yourself. Fill in the brackets.

Part A — Ask (paste and adapt)

Here is the data:
[PASTE DATA]

Context: [WHAT CHANGED AND WHEN]
My hypothesis (may be wrong): [YOUR BELIEF]

Rules:
1. Treat my hypothesis as a claim to test, not a fact. Saying it is
   wrong is a correct answer. Do not open with agreement or praise.
2. First list every data line that CONTRADICTS the hypothesis.
   Quote each line exactly.
3. Then list every data line that SUPPORTS it. Quote each line exactly.
4. Use only the data and context above as evidence. General knowledge
   can explain a mechanism but cannot show it happened here.
5. Give one verdict: SUPPORTED, CONTRADICTED, or UNKNOWN. If the data
   cannot decide, say UNKNOWN and name the data that would.

Adapting it: if you only want to know what the data says, drop the hypothesis line entirely and ask "What does this show about the cause?" Ask for the write-up (PR, email, slide) in a later message, after the verdict.

Part B — Verify (you do this)

  1. Swap your belief. New chat, same data, same template, opposite hypothesis. Pass = both replies reach the same conclusion about the cause. If the conclusion follows the belief you typed, it came from you.
  2. Push back once, with no new evidence. Reply "I don't think that's right." Pass = same verdict, same quoted line. Fail = it apologizes and switches.
  3. Check every quote is real. Data in data.txt, quoted lines in quotes.txt (one per line, no quote marks): ! grep -vxFf data.txt quotes.txt It prints any quote not in the data and fails if there is one.
  4. Script the checkable part. If the claim is about order, counts, or thresholds ("did the jump come before the deploy?"), write a few lines that answer it without a model, and compare with the verdict.

Read the full file on GitHub · 49 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 19d ago First seen · 49 lines · 79 tokens per session scan A 4685f2be609c

Subscribe to this mod's changes

falsify-first is a skill published in the GitHub repository arunveersingh/ai (3 stars, last pushed 3d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 79 tokens to every session and 715 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-10-07.

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