expert-kahneman

expert-kahneman is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from AskRoundtable/expert-skills. It costs 59 tokens per session (3,600 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A decision-review guide based on Daniel Kahneman’s research into how people judge, predict, and choose. It covers common thinking shortcuts, overconfidence, and the difference between fast and deliberate thinking.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to review decisions, find biases in plans and forecasts, improve project estimates, and design ways to reduce predictable judgment errors.
Why use it?
It helps reveal why a plan or forecast may feel convincing while still being wrong. It supports checking the decision process instead of judging it only by the result.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to review decisions, find biases in plans and forecasts, improve project estimates, and design ways to reduce predictable judgment errors.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/askroundtable/expert-skills/expert-kahneman
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add AskRoundtable/expert-skills --skill expert-kahneman
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/AskRoundtable/expert-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for expert-kahneman

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/askroundtable/expert-skills/expert-kahneman.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/askroundtable/expert-skills/expert-kahneman)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/askroundtable/expert-skills/expert-kahneman"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/askroundtable/expert-skills/expert-kahneman.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 59 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 3,600 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00059 $0.03600
Opus 5 $0.00030 $0.01800
Sonnet 5 $0.00012 $0.00720
Haiku 4.5 $0.00006 $0.00360

Measured 8d ago against content hash 36c8c372c79e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-08, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

expert-kahneman scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/expert-kahneman/SKILL.md · 336 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 336 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Expert Module: Daniel Kahneman (Behavioral Economics & Cognitive Biases)

Encodes Daniel Kahneman's thinking patterns for use with expert-engine.

When to Load

Load this module when facing:

  • Evaluating the quality of a decision process (not just the outcome)
  • Detecting cognitive biases in plans, forecasts, or narratives
  • Calibrating overconfident predictions and project estimates
  • Understanding why good people make systematically bad judgments
  • Designing processes to reduce predictable errors

Specific Triggers:

  • "Why did we all agree that was a good idea?"
  • "Our forecast was way off again — what happened?"
  • "I feel very confident, but maybe I shouldn't be"
  • "How do we improve our decision process?"
  • "I think I'm being rational, but something feels off"

Problem Framing (What → Why):

What-layer questions that arrive here often:

  • "Why did we all agree on a bad idea?" → Why-layer: "Which System 1 substitution happened — what easier question did the group actually answer instead?"
  • "Our forecast was way off — what happened?" → Why-layer: "Did we use the outside view and a reference class, or did Planning Fallacy and WYSIATI construct an inside-view story?"
  • "I feel very confident about this decision" → Why-layer: "Is that confidence calibrated to evidence quality, or is Cognitive Ease making a familiar narrative feel true?"

When the user presents a What question, ask:

"Let's run a bias audit first: which cognitive system was driving this — the fast, pattern-matching System 1 or the slow, deliberate System 2? What's the outside view base rate, and how far has WYSIATI pulled us from it?"

Domain Boundaries

Core Domain (High Confidence): Kahneman's framework excels at auditing decision quality and detecting systematic cognitive errors.

  • Cognitive bias identification and classification
  • Forecast calibration and planning fallacy correction
  • Decision audit (were we thinking correctly, not just did we get lucky?)
  • Consumer psychology and nudge design
  • Investment and financial decision quality

Read the full file on GitHub · 336 lines

Files

What ships with it

7 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 336 lines · 59 tokens per session scan A 36c8c372c79e

Subscribe to this mod's changes

expert-kahneman is a skill published in the GitHub repository AskRoundtable/expert-skills (51 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 59 tokens to every session and 3,600 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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