Borrowing it
Nothing to install: this file belongs to belos-street/stock-analytics-skill. Take a copy, put it at the same path in your own repository, and replace the rules that are about this project with yours.
curl -O https://raw.githubusercontent.com/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/main/.agents/skills/bond-yield-analysis/SKILL.mdgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/belos-street/stock-analytics-skillWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/bond-yield-analysis)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/bond-yield-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/bond-yield-analysis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/bond-yield-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/belos-street/stock-analytics-skill/bond-yield-analysis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>- NVIDIA SkillSpector pass
What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00059 | $0.03193 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00030 | $0.01597 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00012 | $0.00639 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00006 | $0.00319 |
Grade A, and why
bond-yield-analysis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 489 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
基债券利率走势研判
技能核心定位
核心目标
系统化债券市场利率走势分析框架，支持交易（1-2周）、策略（1-6个月）、配置（6个月-2年）三种投资视角自适应切换，覆盖宏观基本面、流动性、供需、曲线结构、技术情绪五大维度，结合量化评分与压力测试，生成利率走势判断与债券交易/配置策略。
目标用户
- 债券投资者：判断利率走势和债券配置
- 交易员：寻找短期交易机会
- 策略分析师：制定中期债券策略
- 配置型投资者：长期债券配置
- 财富顾问：客户债券配置建议
技能边界
可提供服务：
- 利率走势判断
- 债券配置建议
- 曲线形态分析
- 久期策略建议
- 利差策略分析
- 量化评分输出
不可提供服务：
- 具体买卖指令
- 承诺收益
- 预测利率精确点位
- 内幕信息
分析框架
一、宏观基本面分析
经济周期定位
1. 增长周期
- GDP增速趋势
- PMI荣枯线
- 工业增加值
- 固定资产投资
2. 通胀周期
- CPI同比
- PPI同比
- 核心CPI
- 通胀预期
3. 周期定位矩阵
| 经济/通胀 | 低通胀 | 高通胀 |
|----------|-------|-------|
| 复苏 | 宽松 | 收益率上行 |
| 扩张 | 紧缩 | 收益率上行 |
| 衰退 | 宽松 | 收益率下行 |
| 滞胀 | 紧缩 | 收益率震荡 |
宏观指标评分
指标权重：
- GDP产出缺口：25%
- CPI偏离目标：20%
- 就业数据：15%
- 社融增速：20%
- 出口增速：10%
- 其他：10%
评分标准：
- 利好债券：+1分
- 中性：0分
- 利空债券：-1分
二、货币政策分析
货币政策框架
目标：
- 稳增长
- 控通胀
- 防风险
- 促就业
工具：
- 公开市场操作
- MLF/LPR利率
- 存款准备金率
- 结构性货币政策
传导机制：
- 政策利率 → 市场利率
- 流动性 → 债券收益率
货币政策前瞻
关注信号：
1. 央行表态（鹰/鸽）
2. 政策例会纪要
3. 流动性投放
4. 监管态度
前瞻判断：
- 宽松周期：债券多头
- 紧缩周期：债券空头
- 中性周期：区间操作
三、流动性分析
银行间流动性
核心指标：
- 资金利率（DR007/R007）
- 央行公开市场操作
- 缴准因素
- 财政存款
流动性评估：
| 指标 | 宽松 | 适度 | 紧张 |
|------|------|------|------|
| DR007 | <2% | 2-2.5% | >2.5% |
| 流动性分层 | 不明显 | 存在 | 明显 |
广义流动性
社融-M2增速差：
- 正缺口：银行间流动性紧张
- 负缺口：银行间流动性宽松
信用派生：
- 社融增速回升：实体融资需求回暖
- 社融增速回落：实体融资需求疲软
四、供需分析
债券供给
利率债供给：
- 国债：全年发行计划
- 地方政府债：额度和进度
- 政金债：项目配套融资
信用债供给：
- 城投债：监管政策和发行意愿
- 产业债：企业融资需求
- 金融债：银行资本补充
供给冲击：
- 供给放量 → 收益率上行
- 供给收缩 → 收益率下行
债券需求
配置需求：
- 保险资金：负债端久期匹配
- 银行自营：风险资本占用
- 境外机构：汇率对冲后收益
交易需求：
- 广义基金：净值化转型
- 证券公司：自营交易
- 境外投资者：全球配置
需求结构：
- 交易盘主导：波动加大
- 配置盘主导：收益率稳定
五、曲线结构分析
曲线形态
基本形态：
- 正向化（正常）：短低长高
- 扁平化：长短端利差收窄
- 陡峭化：长短端利差扩大
- 倒挂：短高长低
曲线解读：
| 形态 | 经济含义 | 债券信号 |
|------|---------|---------|
| 牛陡 | 衰退+货币宽松 | 短端下更多 |
| 牛平 | 复苏初期/滞胀 | 长端下不动 |
| 熊陡 | 复苏/过热 | 短端上更多 |
| 熊平 | 滞胀/紧缩 | 长端上不动 |
期限利差策略
利差历史分位：
- <20%分位：利差偏低，期限利差可能走扩
- >80%分位：利差偏高，期限利差可能收窄
策略建议：
- 期限利差低位：做陡曲线（买入长端）
- 期限利差高位：做平曲线（买入短端）
- 期限利差中位：观望
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 12d ago First seen · 489 lines · 59 tokens per session scan A f39ea4a4f9a1
bond-yield-analysis is a skill published in the GitHub repository belos-street/stock-analytics-skill (49 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 59 tokens to every session and 3,193 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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