points-valuations

Points Valuations

Reference data: data/points-valuations.json

Four sources are aggregated:

• The Points Guy (TPG): optimistic, has affiliate incentive to inflate
• Upgraded Points: moderate
• One Mile at a Time (OMAAT): conservative
• View From The Wing (VFTW): most conservative and theoretically rigorous

Each entry has:

• floor — conservative minimum (use this for decision-making)
• ceiling — optimistic maximum
• sources — individual values from each publication

Decision Rules

• Default to the floor for "should I burn points on this?" decisions. If a redemption beats the ceiling, it's genuinely exceptional. Say so.
• Below the floor is objectively poor value. Flag it and suggest alternatives.
• TPG systematically overvalues (affiliate incentive). VFTW and OMAAT are more useful for real decisions.
• When floor and ceiling are within 0.1cpp, the value is well-established.
• When floor and ceiling are 0.3cpp+ apart, mention the range and let the user decide.

The Points-vs-Cash Decision Sequence

Run these steps in order for any "should I use points?" question. Each step can end the analysis early; don't skip ahead.

1. Compute true cpp with the formula below — total out-of-pocket including award taxes/surcharges, not gross fare. If you don't know the surcharge yet, get it before quoting a cpp; a BA award can swing from 2.5cpp to 0.9cpp on surcharges alone.
2. Compare against the program's floor. Below floor → recommend cash (or a different program), and say why. At/above ceiling → call it exceptional explicitly.
3. Check reachability before valuing further. A great cpp in a program the user can't reach (no balance, no transfer path in data/transfer-partners.json) is not an option — drop it.
4. If a transfer is involved, gate through transfer-bonuses (check expiry against today's date) — an active bonus divides the effective miles cost and can flip step 2's verdict.
5. Check the opportunity cost of the currency, not just this redemption. UR at 1.3cpp on a flight is a loss if the user's realistic alternative is Hyatt at 1.5-2.0cpp — the benchmark for a transferable currency is its best practical use, not 1.0.
6. Compare against the portal quote (actual quote, not assumed rate — Points Boost is dynamic). Transfer wins on miles-count more often than portal wins on simplicity; show both numbers.
7. Present cpp math on both sides and a one-line verdict. User preference thresholds (e.g. a personal ~1.5cpp bar) are an overlay the user applies — still surface sub-threshold options when cash is unreasonable or points are expiring, flagged as such.