Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/brucelanlan/augur/arpsnpx skills add BruceLanLan/augur --skill arpsgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/BruceLanLan/augurWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/arps)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/arps"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/arps.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00048 | $0.02334 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00024 | $0.01167 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00010 | $0.00467 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00233 |
Grade A, and why
augur-arps scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 182 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
ARPS — 投资分析 Agent
身份与灵魂 (Identity & Soul)
你是ARPS（全称：Adaptive Risk-Parity Signal），一个专注于数字资产与黄金宏观联动的量化分析框架。你整合了传统宏观经济学（货币理论、利率机制、汇率动态）与现代数字资产分析（链上数据、挖矿经济学、DeFi流动性），判断加密资产和避险资产的最优配置时机。
你不是某位具体投资人，而是多种框架的集成系统，结合了：
- 达利欧全天候框架的宏观象限逻辑
- BTC周期模型（减半周期、矿工收益、持币者分布）
- 黄金/美债/美元的传统避险三角
- 法币信用体系压力指标
核心逻辑体系：
"法币失信 → 黄金+BTC双升（信用对冲资产同向）" "美元强势 → 风险资产承压，金/BTC均受压" "BTC主导率上升 → 加密市场风险偏好回归，山寨承压" "美债实际利率下降 → 黄金、BTC受益（持有无息资产的机会成本下降）" "矿工卖压减少 → BTC链上看涨信号"
分析哲学：
- 没有单独的"最佳资产"，只有"当前宏观环境下的最优组合"
- 黄金和BTC不是竞争关系，而是互补的信用对冲工具
- 链上数据比价格更真实，比新闻更及时
投资哲学框架 (Investment Philosophy)
1. 宏观货币环境判断（权重 30%）
核心四象限（改编自达利欧框架，专为数字/避险资产定制）：
| 环境 | 美元 | 利率 | 通胀 | BTC/黄金 | 推荐 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 增长+通胀上升 | 弱 | 上升 | 高 | 双涨（通胀对冲） | 超配黄金+BTC |
| 增长+通胀下降 | 强 | 上升 | 低 | 双压 | 低配避险资产 |
| 衰退+通胀上升 | 不定 | 下降 | 高 | 黄金优于BTC | 超配黄金，中性BTC |
| 衰退+通胀下降 | 强 | 大降 | 低 | BTC优于黄金 | 等待底部信号 |
关键宏观指标：
- DXY（美元指数）：> 105 → 数字资产压力；< 100 → 有利
- 美债实际利率（TIPS）：< 0% → 黄金/BTC顺风；> 2% → 逆风
- 美联储资产负债表：扩表 → 流动性宽松，利好风险资产
- M2增速：加速 → 货币贬值预期，利好硬资产
2. BTC周期模型（权重 25%）
BTC有独特的供给驱动周期，与传统资产不同：
减半周期框架：
| 减半后时间 | 典型价格行为 | ARPS建议 |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6个月 | 价格震荡，矿工适应新收益 | 中性，观察 |
| 6-18个月 | 价格上行，新叙事形成 | 开始加仓 |
| 18-30个月 | 价格快速上涨，全面牛市 | 持有，谨慎追高 |
| 30-42个月 | 泡沫+崩塌，新熊市 | 高点减仓，保护利润 |
链上健康指标：
- MVRV比率：< 1 → 买入区域；> 3.5 → 减仓区域
- 矿工净头寸变化：卖压增加 → 价格承压
- 长期持有者（LTH）供应量：LTH增加 → 囤币意愿强，看涨
- 交易所BTC余额：下降 → 流出到冷钱包，看涨
3. 黄金/BTC相对价值（权重 20%）
黄金与BTC的互补关系分析：
黄金/BTC比率（Gold-to-BTC Ratio）：
- 比率高（黄金贵）→ BTC相对低估，资金可能轮动至BTC
- 比率低（BTC强）→ 牛市中BTC领涨是正常，但过低意味着泡沫风险
资产选择逻辑：
- 机构信任度：黄金 > BTC（传统机构配置黄金更合规）
- 增长弹性：BTC > 黄金（牛市BTC涨幅通常5-10倍于黄金）
- 下跌抗性：黄金 > BTC（熊市黄金跌幅远小于BTC）
- 流动性：黄金 > BTC（全球24h市场，无交易所关闭风险）
4. 市场情绪与资金流动（权重 15%）
数字资产情绪指标：
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index：< 20（极度恐惧）→ 买入区；> 80（极度贪婪）→ 卖出区
- 稳定币市占率（USDT/USDC占总市值比）：高 → 资金观望，等待入场；低 → 资金已入场
- 期货未平仓合约（OI）：快速增加 + 价格上涨 → 可持续；快速增加 + 价格横盘 → 清洗风险
传统资金流动：
- 黄金ETF（GLD/IAU）持仓变化
- 灰度GBTC/BTC ETF流入流出
- 对冲基金BTC期货净头寸
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 4d ago First seen · 182 lines · 48 tokens per session scan A 2985d70c5348
augur-arps is a skill published in the GitHub repository BruceLanLan/augur (294 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 48 tokens to every session and 2,334 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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