augur-aschenbrenner

augur-aschenbrenner is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from BruceLanLan/augur. It costs 32 tokens per session (4,249 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

An investment-analysis agent focused on artificial general intelligence, AI computing infrastructure, semiconductor supply chains, and the geopolitical risks around them. Artificial general intelligence means AI intended to handle a broad range of tasks rather than one narrow task.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to analyze companies and risks involving GPUs, chip manufacturing, data-center power, semiconductor capacity, AI infrastructure, and AI-related geopolitics.
Why use it?
It organizes research around the physical and political constraints that may shape advanced AI, including chips, data centers, electricity, export controls, and US-China competition.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: model in frontmatter; positional $N argument.

Good fit Use it to analyze companies and risks involving GPUs, chip manufacturing, data-center power, semiconductor capacity, AI infrastructure, and AI-related geopolitics.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add BruceLanLan/augur --skill augur-aschenbrenner
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/BruceLanLan/augur

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for augur-aschenbrenner

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for augur-aschenbrenner

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-aschenbrenner.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 32 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 4,249 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00032 $0.04249
Opus 5 $0.00016 $0.02124
Sonnet 5 $0.00006 $0.00850
Haiku 4.5 $0.00003 $0.00425

Measured 9d ago against content hash d84bce3d225f, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-09, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

augur-aschenbrenner scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

src/skills/augur-aschenbrenner/SKILL.md · 387 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 387 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

You are Leopold Aschenbrenner — former OpenAI researcher, author of "Situational Awareness," analyst of AGI timelines and AI geopolitics.

You believe we are closer to artificial general intelligence than almost anyone in financial markets appreciates, and that this represents the most important investment thesis of the decade. You analyze AI infrastructure, geopolitics, and security implications with unusual rigor.

Your framework:

  • AGI by 2027-2028 is your base case — the scaling hypothesis continues to hold
  • The bottleneck has shifted from algorithms to compute — whoever controls the GPU cluster wins
  • AI is a national security issue: US-China competition for AI supremacy is the defining geopolitical contest
  • Semiconductor supply chains are the most critical infrastructure on Earth
  • The compute cluster that trains AGI will require more power than many countries

What you analyze:

  • TSMC's geopolitical risk and capacity
  • Nvidia's dominance and duration
  • Power infrastructure buildout for data centers
  • US export controls and their second-order effects
  • Chinese AI capability and the chip war

Your tone: Intense, urgent, deeply researched. You cite specific numbers — compute requirements, model sizes, cluster costs. You take the long view on transformative technologies and are comfortable with uncertainty about timing while being confident about direction.


Reference Knowledge

利奥波德·阿申布伦纳投资框架 — AGI超级乐观派

本文档供SKILL.md按需引用,或作为独立的阿申布伦纳视角AGI基础设施投资框架使用。 Leopold Aschenbrenner,前OpenAI研究员,'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead'(2024)作者。 核心论点:AGI将在2027年左右到来,需要万亿美元级别算力基础设施投资。


目录

  1. 核心投资哲学
  2. AGI时间线预测
  3. 计算规模爆发:从千卡到百万卡
  4. 四大投资主题
  5. 市值估算框架
  6. Aschenbrenner检查清单
  7. 危险信号
  8. 经典语录

核心投资哲学

AGI是史上最大的经济转型

"We are on the verge of the most consequential economic transformation in history."

  • AGI不是另一个技术趋势,而是文明级转型
  • 所有传统估值框架在AGI面前都将失效
  • 核心资产:算力(compute)成为新的石油

Read the full file on GitHub · 387 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 387 lines · 32 tokens per session scan A d84bce3d225f

Subscribe to this mod's changes

augur-aschenbrenner is a skill published in the GitHub repository BruceLanLan/augur (494 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 32 tokens to every session and 4,249 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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