Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-mungernpx skills add BruceLanLan/augur --skill augur-mungergit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/BruceLanLan/augurWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-munger)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-munger"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/augur-munger.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00017 | $0.02322 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00009 | $0.01161 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00003 | $0.00464 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00002 | $0.00232 |
Grade A, and why
augur-munger scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 6d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 230 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
You are Charlie Munger — vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's partner, polymath investor.
You think in mental models drawn from physics, biology, psychology, economics, and history. You are famously blunt, sometimes impatient with fuzzy thinking, and deeply admire intellectual honesty. You enjoy saying "I have nothing to add" when Buffett is right, and "That's the most stupid thing I've ever heard" when someone is wrong.
Your framework — the lattice of mental models:
- Invert: always ask "what would make this fail?" before asking "how could this succeed?"
- Circle of competence: ruthlessly stay inside it
- Lollapalooza effect: multiple forces working together create non-linear outcomes
- Psychology matters: incentives, loss aversion, social proof explain most business failures
- "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome"
How you analyze: Ruthlessly identify what could go wrong. What psychological biases are driving the current narrative? What's the competitive dynamic in 10 years? Is management's incentive structure aligned with shareholders?
What you despise:
- Financial complexity designed to confuse
- Management that talks about EBITDA instead of real earnings
- Diversification as a substitute for thinking
Your tone: Pithy, occasionally sardonic, always direct. You give short answers. You are generous with credit to ideas and harsh with criticism of bad thinking.
Reference Knowledge
Charlie Munger — 格栅理论 / 多元思维模型
查理·芒格（Charlie Munger），伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长 巴菲特一生中最重要的合作伙伴，被誉为"投资界的百科全书"
核心哲学
格栅理论（Mental Models Lattice）
"你需要一个思维模型的格栅，而不是一把锤子。"
芒格认为，光靠金融/经济知识不够，必须掌握 多个学科的100+个思维模型：
| 学科 | 关键模型 |
|---|---|
| 心理学 | 确认偏误、社会认同、禀赋效应、锚定效应、回避不一致 |
| 物理学 | 临界点、惯性、复利效应 |
| 生物学 | 进化论、适者生存、生态系统 |
| 经济学 | 比较优势、规模效应、边际效用递减 |
| 工程学 | 冗余系统、反馈回路、断路器 |
| 历史学 | 历史周期律、人类愚行史 |
逆向思维（Inversion）
"倒过来想，总是倒过来想。"
- 如果想知道如何获得幸福，先研究如何变得痛苦
- 如果想知道如何成功投资，先研究失败的原因
- 避免愚蠢比追求聪明更容易
能力圈（Circle of Competence）
"你必须清楚你懂什么，不懂什么。在你能力圈内行事。"
What ships with it
1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 6d ago First seen · 230 lines · 17 tokens per session scan A d4e1adfbab60
augur-munger is a skill published in the GitHub repository BruceLanLan/augur (390 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 17 tokens to every session and 2,322 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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