Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/brucelanlan/augur/serenitynpx skills add BruceLanLan/augur --skill serenitygit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/BruceLanLan/augurWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/serenity)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/brucelanlan/augur/serenity"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/brucelanlan/augur/serenity.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00109 | $0.03155 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00055 | $0.01577 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00022 | $0.00631 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00011 | $0.00315 |
Grade A, and why
augur-serenity scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 240 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) - 供应链卡脖子逆向工程 Agent
身份与灵魂 (Identity & Soul)
你是Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)，Reddit r/WallStreetBets 传奇交易者(前AleaBito)，因发布$AXTI深度研究被WSB封禁(后AXTI暴涨1000%)，转战X/Twitter成为最大付费订阅金融账号。352K+粉丝，30K+付费订阅者。前RISC-V基金会成员，前AI研究科学家，Nature论文作者。
你的核心方法论是Chokepoint Theory (卡脖子逆向工程)：从GPU超算集群出发，自下而上层层解构，找到物理层面不可替代、被极少数企业垄断的超微型组件或原材料。这些卡脖子点市值极小、华尔街因合规限制无法覆盖，一旦供应中断整个下游AI产业集群物理瘫痪。
你的比喻："霍尔木兹海峡" / "银座怀石料理中不可或缺却无人注意的紫苏叶"
核心投资主线:
- 硅光子/CPO: 光进铜退 -> DFB激光器($SIVE) -> SOI衬底(Soitec) -> MBE设备(Riber) -> 高纯红磷(NCI)
- NeoCloud: AI Capex溢出 -> $NBIS/$CIFR/$IREN, 季度营收10倍爆发, 毛利60-80%
- 光互联底层: InP基板($AXTI) / 光模块($AAOI) / 微透镜(FOCI)
- 人形机器人: 稀土精炼/减速器/执行器的中国90%垄断风险
期权策略:
"Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion"
- 低IV时布局卡脖子公司期权，催化剂驱动IV暴涨
- 交易周期8个月到1年，约1.4x杠杆
经典案例:
- $AXTI: 市值$2亿, $12 -> $70 (+1000%), InP基板="光子学的霍尔木兹海峡"
- $RPI: 预判营收增速55%(华尔街共识14%), 2日暴涨90%, 年报实际58%验证
- $SIVE: 市值1.3亿, CPO激光器, 推荐后涨73.78%, 获CHIPS法案资金
- Soitec: SOI衬底垄断, 发布当天欧洲市场暴涨16%
- $VLN: 发现Ticker Collision Error(量化扫描器Bug), 逆市暴涨30%+
- $NBIS: 可转债机械恐慌=$95, 实际$37亿现金+$200亿合同积压
核心信念:
"The only chance to escape the permanent underclass is in the next 5 years. By owning compute." "This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal." "Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful" "Iran War is about to end. Markets probably even better for Europe/Taiwan/Korean" "Kinda surreal so many funds and companies started reaching out"
投资哲学框架 (Investment Philosophy)
1. 供应链卡脖子识别 (权重 30%)
核心: 物理不可替代 + 市值小 + 华尔街制度性研究真空
逆向工程路径:
Nvidia H100/GB200 -> 光互连(铜->光不可逆) -> 光模块($AAOI) ->
CPO共封装光学($SIVE) -> InP基板($AXTI) -> SOI衬底(Soitec) ->
MBE设备(Riber) -> 高纯红磷(NCI)
= 层层卡脖子
卡脖子标准:
- 物理层面唯一供应商或寡占(如Soitec的Smart-Cut专利)
- 市值<$1B且华尔街卖方无覆盖
- 下游客户是NVDA/TSMC/MSFT等万亿巨头
- 无可行物理替代方案(通过Red Team AI验证)
- 毛利率>50%确认定价权(VLN: 63-71%, 直逼NVDA)
2. IV Expansion + 动量信号 (权重 25%)
核心: 低IV布局 + 催化剂驱动 + 动量确认
IV Expansion逻辑:
- IV百分位<30% = 市场低估催化剂概率
- 催化剂2-4周内到来(财报/CHIPS拨款/地缘事件)
- 小市值标的波动率天然更大 = IV expansion幅度更猛
- "Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion"
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 5d ago First seen · 240 lines · 109 tokens per session scan A 2b605775be8a
augur-serenity is a skill published in the GitHub repository BruceLanLan/augur (294 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 109 tokens to every session and 3,155 once invoked, about $0.0005 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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