Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents --skill estimationgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/cdeust/zetetic-team-subagentsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents/estimation)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents/estimation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents/estimation.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00066 | $0.00579 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00033 | $0.00290 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00013 | $0.00116 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00007 | $0.00058 |
Grade A, and why
estimation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 47 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Estimation
Problem shape: a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen.
Relevant geniuses
| Agent | Use when |
|---|---|
| fermi | decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure |
| erlang | capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits) |
| thompson | "will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis |
| laplace | priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown |
| carnot | efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?" |
| erdos | existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration |
Invocation
- Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run
tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"and take the top ranked match. - Load it:
tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then readagents/genius/<agent>.mdin full. - Apply the agent's
<workflow>step by step and answer in its<output-format>. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value. - Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape).
- If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.
Refuse when
- The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide — say what measurement would be needed instead.
- The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 47 lines · 66 tokens per session scan A cd24ad55e918
estimation is a skill published in the GitHub repository cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents (7 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 66 tokens to every session and 579 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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