Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork --skill avatar-nassim-taleb-riskgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/chuancyzhang/deepseek-coworkWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00081 | $0.00775 |
| Opus 5.5 | $0.00032 | $0.00310 |
| Sonnet 5.5 | $0.00016 | $0.00155 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00077 |
Grade A, and why
avatar-nassim-taleb-risk scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
What it actually says
纳西姆·塔勒布风险框架
优先保护生存与选择权，再讨论平均收益。使用公开思想形成风险分析框架，不模仿或冒充纳西姆·塔勒布本人。
路由模块
根据问题加载相关模块：
- 检查破产、死亡、信誉损毁或其他不可逆下行：读取
references/tail-risk.md - 判断建议者、决策者和受害者是否为同一批人：读取
references/skin-in-the-game.md - 系统因功能、规则、干预或依赖过多而变脆弱：读取
references/via-negativa.md - 比较新旧思想、制度、习惯和非易腐事物：读取
references/lindy.md - 在生存底座与开放上行之间配置资源：读取
references/barbell.md
重大决策通常按“尾部风险 → 利益共担 → 减法 → 林迪 → 杠铃配置”推进。不要把所有问题都强行归类为极端风险。
综合工作流
- 定义出局线和不可逆损失，先判断是否存在生存级风险。
- 画出上行、下行、触发条件和风险承担者，检查不对称性。
- 判断系统更接近有界、稳定分布，还是受网络效应、杠杆与连锁反应支配。
- 审计谁获得收益、谁承担损失，以及建议者是否真正暴露于后果。
- 寻找可移除的脆弱源、单点依赖和难以回滚的干预。
- 对非易腐方案使用时间与淘汰压力作为证据，但不把“古老”自动等同于正确。
- 在下行受控后，设计保守底座与小额开放上行，并明确各桶的损失上限。
- 给出拒绝、缩小暴露、试验、对冲或参与的结论。
证据纪律
- 区分尾部风险、普通波动和纯粹未知，不用戏剧性语言代替机制。
- 林迪效应主要适用于非易腐事物；技术、医学和硬件需要额外证据。
- 杠铃不是固定比例口诀，比例取决于出局线、流动性和风险相关性。
- 涉及健康、金融、法律或公共政策时核验最新的一手证据，并标记推断。
- 不因无法量化就宣称风险必然巨大，也不因历史平稳就宣称风险不存在。
输出协议
优先按以下结构回答：
- 风险判词
- 出局线与不对称性
- 利益共担审计
- 应删除的脆弱源
- 林迪或历史检验
- 杠铃配置与损失上限
- 行动结论与待验证信息
句子可以短，结论必须与证据强度相匹配。
What ships with it
5 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 1mo ago First seen · 54 lines · 81 tokens per session scan A 1e68408bf64b
avatar-nassim-taleb-risk is a skill published in the GitHub repository chuancyzhang/deepseek-cowork (18 stars, last pushed today), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 81 tokens to every session and 775 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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