Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add crazymsn/academic-skills --skill what-if-oraclegit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/crazymsn/academic-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/crazymsn/academic-skills/what-if-oracle)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/crazymsn/academic-skills/what-if-oracle"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/crazymsn/academic-skills/what-if-oracle/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/crazymsn/academic-skills/what-if-oracle"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/crazymsn/academic-skills/what-if-oracle.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00123 | $0.01971 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00062 | $0.00986 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00025 | $0.00394 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00012 | $0.00197 |
Grade A, and why
what-if-oracle scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
100% identical to what-if-oracle — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 169 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
What-If Oracle — Possibility Space Explorer
A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full possibility space — branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences.
Based on the What-If Statement paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a fundamental computing operation — the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one.
Published research: The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841) | IDNA Consolidation v2 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18807387)
Core Principle: 0·IF·1
Every scenario analysis has three elements:
- 0 — The unexpressed state (what hasn't happened yet, the potential)
- 1 — The expressed state (what IS, the current reality)
- IF — The conditional bond (the decision, event, or change that transforms 0 into 1)
The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence.
How to Run the Oracle
Phase 1 — Frame the Question
Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:
Decompose into components:
- The Variable: What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis)
- The Magnitude: By how much? (quantify if possible)
- The Timeframe: Over what period?
- The Context: What's the current state before the change?
If the question is vague, sharpen it:
- "What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?"
- "What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?"
Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding.
What ships with it
1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 9d ago First seen · 169 lines · 123 tokens per session scan A 6696e69bfae3
what-if-oracle is a skill published in the GitHub repository crazymsn/academic-skills (22 stars, last pushed 3mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 123 tokens to every session and 1,971 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to what-if-oracle, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.
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