layer4_expected_diff

layer4_expected_diff is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from duolongworld/AI_Renaissance. It costs 24 tokens per session (436 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A signal engine that compares measured economic or business conditions with what financial markets appear to expect. It produces differences for growth, inflation, and cross-country comparisons such as China versus the United States.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to compare economic data with interest-rate-based growth expectations, assess inflation surprises, and study China–US growth or liquidity gaps as inputs to asset-allocation decisions.
Why use it?
It helps identify when reality is stronger or weaker than current market pricing assumes. It also reduces the signal's importance over time and calls for review when the direction stays wrong for several weeks.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/duolongworld/ai_renaissance/layer4_expected_diff
Any agent
npx skills add duolongworld/AI_Renaissance --skill layer4_expected_diff
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/duolongworld/AI_Renaissance

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for layer4_expected_diff

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/duolongworld/ai_renaissance/layer4_expected_diff.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/duolongworld/ai_renaissance/layer4_expected_diff)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/duolongworld/ai_renaissance/layer4_expected_diff"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/duolongworld/ai_renaissance/layer4_expected_diff.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 24 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 436 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00024 $0.00436
Opus 5 $0.00012 $0.00218
Sonnet 5 $0.00005 $0.00087
Haiku 4.5 $0.00002 $0.00044

Measured 4d ago against content hash a1149cfaa3ab, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

layer4_expected_diff scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 2 executable files (scripts/__init__.py, scripts/analyzer.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/macro/layer4_expected_diff/SKILL.md · 54 lines

What it actually says

Layer 4: 预期差信号引擎

执行方式

  • 数值计算
  • 智能分析(需要LLM解读预期差含义、交易含义)
  • 混合模式

适用范围

计算"实际状态vs市场定价"的偏差,为 Layer 5 资产配置提供信号输入。

信号类型

类型A:高频意外指数

  • 中国CESI:正值=中国数据持续超预期
  • 美国CESI:正值=美国数据持续超预期

类型B:基本面vs市场定价

信号 计算 正信号含义
增长预期差 CAI - 利率隐含增长 实际增长强于定价
通胀预期差 通胀得分 - 隐含通胀 实际通胀强于定价

类型C:跨国预期差

信号 含义
中美增长预期差 A股vs美股相对价值
中美流动性差 全球资本流向

信号衰减规则

类型 初始有效期 衰减方式
A类 2-4周 每周25%
B类 1-3个月 每月20%
C类 1-3个月 每月15%

复核规则

  • 连续2周反向 → 触发复核
  • 连续3周反向 → 强制降级至弱信号
Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 4d ago First seen · 54 lines · 24 tokens per session scan A a1149cfaa3ab

Subscribe to this mod's changes

layer4_expected_diff is a skill published in the GitHub repository duolongworld/AI_Renaissance (59 stars, last pushed 6d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 24 tokens to every session and 436 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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