neqsim-ageing-life-extension-screening

Ageing and Life-Extension Screening

Use this skill when a maintenance history has to answer a life-extension question: is this equipment getting worse, and will it still do its job in year N? It turns a list of corrective-failure dates into a trend verdict, a fitted failure-intensity model, a projection to a target year, and a maintain-versus-replace crossover.

When to Use

• A life-extension or lifetime-programme decision must be justified from failure history.
• A user asks whether failures are becoming more frequent (ageing) or less frequent (reliability growth).
• A projection is needed of how many failures to expect between today and a required end-of-life year.
• A maintain-versus-replace comparison is needed at screening level.
• A recurring failure has to be characterised across many years of records.
• A study (tie-back, economics, emissions, capacity increase, concept selection) needs a production or operating horizon: establish the technical life basis first (see below).
• A question asks how long an installation or equipment population can operate, or what limits technical life.

Do NOT Use For

• A single non-repairable item's time-to-failure distribution — that is a lifetime (Weibull) problem, not a point-process problem.
• Structural fatigue or corrosion remaining-life — those need a damage model, not a failure-count trend.
• A qualified life-extension assessment or regulatory submission. This is screening input to one.

Technical Life Basis (establish this before any study that uses a horizon)

Any study that needs a field life, production horizon, tie-in tail, NPV window or remaining-life statement (tie-back, debottlenecking, capacity increase, concept selection, emissions or economics roll-up) must first establish an explicit technical life basis for the host and for each life-limiting equipment population. Do not assume a horizon; read it, state its source, and carry it into the study as an input with a data-gap flag when it is missing.