forecasting

forecasting is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from event4u-app/agent-config. It costs 42 tokens per session (2,073 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A finance forecasting guide for combining top-down estimates, such as market size and expected share, with bottom-up estimates based on individual deals. It also covers confidence ranges and reviewing forecast accuracy afterward.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to construct a finance-owned forecast model, reconcile top-down and bottom-up numbers, and prepare a review of the forecast after the period ends.
Why use it?
It helps reconcile conflicting forecast methods and exposes assumptions that are too weak to support an annual plan or quarterly board report.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: positional $N argument.

Good fit Use it to construct a finance-owned forecast model, reconcile top-down and bottom-up numbers, and prepare a review of the forecast after the period ends.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add event4u-app/agent-config --skill forecasting
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/event4u-app/agent-config

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for forecasting

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for forecasting

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/event4u-app/agent-config/forecasting.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 42 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,073 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00042 $0.02073
Opus 5 $0.00021 $0.01037
Sonnet 5 $0.00008 $0.00415
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00207

Measured 7d ago against content hash ad7aaf77cfc1, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

forecasting scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

src/skills/forecasting/SKILL.md · 174 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 174 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

forecasting

When to use

  • The annual plan or quarterly board pack needs a forecast model that survives a retro — not last quarter's number with a multiplier.
  • Top-down (TAM × penetration × motion) and bottom-up (deal-level) calls have diverged and the reconciliation hasn't been written.
  • A new finance-partner inherits a forecast and needs to rebuild the construction shape without inheriting the prior regime's optimism.

Do NOT use to qualify a single deal (route to deal-qualification-meddic), construct the RevOps commit list (route to forecast-accuracy (H10) — finance owns the shape, RevOps owns the call), or run capital-runway scenarios (route to runway-cognition (O3)).

Cognition cluster

  • Mental model 9 — Hypothesis-driven thinking. Each forecast is a falsifiable claim about a window. If the call cannot be falsified inside the window, the call is a narrative, not a forecast. See mental-models.md § 9.
  • Mental model 29 — Premortem. Before locking the call, write the post-window retro as if commit missed by 20 %. The premortem surfaces which construction inputs were riding on weak evidence; demote those before the call locks. See mental-models.md § 29.
  • Mental model 16 — Leading vs lagging. Closed-won is lagging; pipeline coverage, segment conversion, and slot-completeness are leading. A forecast built only on lagging signals can confirm but not steer. See mental-models.md § 16.
  • Context-spine — product + fiscal-period + customer-segment. Read the product slot for what is GA-shippable in the window; the fiscal-period slot for the cadence the model must reconcile against (monthly close vs quarterly board pack vs annual plan vs multi-year plan); the customer-segment slot for segment-historical close rates. See context-spine.

Procedure

Step 0: Inspect the construction shape

Read the fiscal-period slot. Decide between three shapes:

Read the full file on GitHub · 174 lines

Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 7d ago First seen · 174 lines · 42 tokens per session scan A ad7aaf77cfc1

Subscribe to this mod's changes

forecasting is a skill published in the GitHub repository event4u-app/agent-config (10 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 42 tokens to every session and 2,073 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.