Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add FeiCoder/Skill-Factory --skill trend-following-timinggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/FeiCoder/Skill-FactoryWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/feicoder/skill-factory/trend-following-timing)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/feicoder/skill-factory/trend-following-timing"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/feicoder/skill-factory/trend-following-timing.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00053 | $0.01155 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00026 | $0.00577 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00011 | $0.00231 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00115 |
Grade A, and why
trend-following-timing scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
What it actually says
趋势追踪择时
基本概念
趋势择时的基本思想来自技术分析，认为趋势存在延续性，找到趋势方向后跟随操作即可。
技术分析三假设
- 市场行为涵盖一切信息
- 价格沿趋势移动
- 历史会重演
技术指标分类
| 类型 | 说明 | 示例 |
|---|---|---|
| 趋势型 | 判断趋势方向 | MA、MACD、DMA |
| 反趋势型 | 判断超买超卖 | RSI、KDJ |
| 能量型 | 判断买卖力量 | OBV、VR |
| 大盘型 | 判断整体市场 | 腾落指数 |
传统趋势指标
1. MA（移动平均）
计算公式：
MA(N) = (P1 + P2 + ... + PN) / N
交易法则：
- 均线在价格之下且上升 → 买入
- 均线在价格之上且下降 → 卖出
- 金叉：短期均线从下向上穿过长期均线 → 买入
- 死叉：短期均线从上向下穿过长期均线 → 卖出
参数建议：
- 短期：4日
- 长期：40日
2. MACD
计算：
DIFF = EMA(12) - EMA(26)
DEA = EMA(DIFF, 9)
MACD = 2 × (DIFF - DEA)
交易信号：
- DIFF、DEA均为正，DIFF向上突破DEA → 买入
- DIFF、DEA均为负，DIFF向下跌破DEA → 卖出
3. DMA
计算：
DMA = MA(短期) - MA(长期)
AMA = MA(DMA)
交易信号：
- DMA向上交叉AMA → 买入
- DMA向下交叉AMA → 卖出
4. TRIX
计算：
EMA1 = EMA(收盘价, N)
EMA2 = EMA(EMA1, N)
EMA3 = EMA(EMA2, N)
TRIX = (EMA3 - EMA3前值) / EMA3前值 × 100
MATRIX = MA(TRIX, M)
交易信号：
- TRIX向上交叉MATRIX → 买入
- TRIX向下交叉MATRIX → 卖出
组合指标策略
多指标叠加
将多个趋势指标信号叠加：
- 4个指标最优信号相加
- Flag ∈ {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
优化结果
最优策略：3-3组合（至少3个买入/卖出信号）
- 15年测试期内
- 总交易17次
- 累计收益：16.39倍
- 同期指数收益：2.8倍
自适应均线
考夫曼自适应均线(KAMA)
核心理念：
- 震荡市场 → 使用慢速均线
- 趋势市场 → 使用快速均线
价格轨迹效率
E = |Pn - P1| / Σ|Pi - Pi-1|
- E → 1：高效率趋势市场
- E → 0：低效率震荡市场
自适应算法
a = (E × (c - d) + d)²
AMA = AMA前值 + a × (价格 - AMA前值)
参数：
- n：历史窗口
- c, d：效率边界参数
- N：自适应系统参数
实证效果（1998年后）
| 指数 | 择时收益 | 持有收益 |
|---|---|---|
| 上证指数 | 明显超越 | 基准 |
| 深证成指 | 明显超越 | 基准 |
自适应均线特点
- 优点：适应不同波动形态
- 缺点：信号频繁，交易成本高
- 适用：小资金调仓
实践建议
指标选择
- 单一指标：推荐MA(4,40)或MACD
- 组合指标：4个趋势指标叠加
参数优化
- 分3个5年区间测试
- 选择稳定超越基准的参数
交易成本
- 考虑双边1%交易成本
- 权衡准确率和交易频率
注意事项
- 震荡市场易产生错误信号
- 需要设置止损
- 趋势形成后效果最好
- 考虑市场环境适应性
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 167 lines · 53 tokens per session scan A d9199abb619e
trend-following-timing is a skill published in the GitHub repository FeiCoder/Skill-Factory (10 stars, last pushed 6mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 53 tokens to every session and 1,155 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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