critical-uncertainties

critical-uncertainties is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from fzfclee/consulting-skills. It costs 46 tokens per session (714 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A decision method for finding the unknown factors that could most change the outcome. It also identifies early signs that those factors are shifting.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to assess strategic choices, compare possible scenarios, plan validation work, or decide what signals to monitor.
Why use it?
It reduces false confidence when the future is unclear and one forecast is not enough. It helps focus attention on uncertainties that matter most.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to assess strategic choices, compare possible scenarios, plan validation work, or decide what signals to monitor.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add fzfclee/consulting-skills --skill critical-uncertainties
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/fzfclee/consulting-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for critical-uncertainties

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for critical-uncertainties

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 46 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 714 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00046 $0.00714
Opus 5 $0.00023 $0.00357
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00143
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00071

Measured 11d ago against content hash 405906246fa3, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

critical-uncertainties scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/critical-uncertainties/SKILL.md · 76 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 76 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Critical Uncertainties

Use this skill to identify which unknowns matter most and how to monitor them.

Method Notes

  • A critical uncertainty is both highly uncertain and highly consequential.
  • The method prevents false confidence when one forecast is not enough.
  • It can feed scenario planning, validation plans, stakeholder strategy, and risk control.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

  • decision question or strategic choice
  • possible uncertainties
  • decision time horizon
  • consequences of different outcomes
  • early indicators or data sources when available

If an input is missing, mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use for ordinary risks with known mitigation paths. Use risk-matrix or pre-mortem instead.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step Required input How to execute Output
Define the decision horizon Decision question, time horizon, action deadline. State how far ahead the uncertainty matters. Decision horizon.
List uncertainties Unknowns, external variables, stakeholder unknowns, market shifts. Write each uncertainty as a variable that can move in more than one direction. Uncertainty list.
Rate uncertainty and impact Evidence, volatility, consequence, controllability. Rate uncertainty and impact as high / medium / low. Uncertainty-impact table.
Select critical uncertainties Rating table. Choose the 1-3 uncertainties with high impact and high uncertainty. Critical uncertainty set.
Define poles or outcomes Critical uncertainties. For each, define plausible opposite states or outcome ranges. Uncertainty poles.
Create signposts Evidence sources, leading indicators, stakeholder signals. Define early signs that show which way the uncertainty is moving. Signpost list.
Link to actions Current plan, options, thresholds. Decide what to do under each signal. Contingent action logic.

Read the full file on GitHub · 76 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 76 lines · 46 tokens per session scan A 405906246fa3

Subscribe to this mod's changes

critical-uncertainties is a skill published in the GitHub repository fzfclee/consulting-skills (4 stars, last pushed 22d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 46 tokens to every session and 714 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.