Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add fzfclee/consulting-skills --skill critical-uncertaintiesgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/fzfclee/consulting-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/fzfclee/consulting-skills/critical-uncertainties.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00046 | $0.00714 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00023 | $0.00357 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00009 | $0.00143 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00005 | $0.00071 |
Grade A, and why
critical-uncertainties scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 76 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Critical Uncertainties
Use this skill to identify which unknowns matter most and how to monitor them.
Method Notes
- A critical uncertainty is both highly uncertain and highly consequential.
- The method prevents false confidence when one forecast is not enough.
- It can feed scenario planning, validation plans, stakeholder strategy, and risk control.
Required Inputs
Collect or infer these inputs before execution:
- decision question or strategic choice
- possible uncertainties
- decision time horizon
- consequences of different outcomes
- early indicators or data sources when available
If an input is missing, mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.
When Not To Use
Do not use for ordinary risks with known mitigation paths. Use risk-matrix or pre-mortem instead.
Step-by-Step Execution
| Step | Required input | How to execute | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Define the decision horizon | Decision question, time horizon, action deadline. | State how far ahead the uncertainty matters. | Decision horizon. |
| List uncertainties | Unknowns, external variables, stakeholder unknowns, market shifts. | Write each uncertainty as a variable that can move in more than one direction. | Uncertainty list. |
| Rate uncertainty and impact | Evidence, volatility, consequence, controllability. | Rate uncertainty and impact as high / medium / low. | Uncertainty-impact table. |
| Select critical uncertainties | Rating table. | Choose the 1-3 uncertainties with high impact and high uncertainty. | Critical uncertainty set. |
| Define poles or outcomes | Critical uncertainties. | For each, define plausible opposite states or outcome ranges. | Uncertainty poles. |
| Create signposts | Evidence sources, leading indicators, stakeholder signals. | Define early signs that show which way the uncertainty is moving. | Signpost list. |
| Link to actions | Current plan, options, thresholds. | Decide what to do under each signal. | Contingent action logic. |
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 11d ago First seen · 76 lines · 46 tokens per session scan A 405906246fa3
critical-uncertainties is a skill published in the GitHub repository fzfclee/consulting-skills (4 stars, last pushed 22d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 46 tokens to every session and 714 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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