prediction-market-oracle-research

prediction-market-oracle-research is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from gongyijie85/dsh-ecc. It costs 71 tokens per session (462 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of prediction-market-oracle-research, MIT.

A research guide for using prediction markets as data sources or forecasting signals. It explains how market prices may reflect estimated event probabilities and why those estimates can be unreliable.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to evaluate prediction-market data for dashboards, products, agents, or business decision-making without treating it as investment advice.
Why use it?
It helps separate useful signals from effects caused by low liquidity, stale prices, manipulation, incentives, or unclear event resolution.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to evaluate prediction-market data for dashboards, products, agents, or business decision-making without treating it as investment advice.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add gongyijie85/dsh-ecc --skill prediction-market-oracle-research
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for prediction-market-oracle-research

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for prediction-market-oracle-research

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/gongyijie85/dsh-ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 71 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 462 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 88% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00071 $0.00462
Opus 5 $0.00036 $0.00231
Sonnet 5 $0.00014 $0.00092
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00046

Measured 8d ago against content hash 63f91f6e7183, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

prediction-market-oracle-research scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

88% identical to prediction-market-oracle-research — 2 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md · 65 lines

What it actually says

Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

Guardrails

  • Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
  • Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
  • Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
  • Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
  • For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security before granting any write authority.

Research Workflow

  1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
  2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
  3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
  4. Evaluate signal quality:
    • liquidity
    • spread
    • market age
    • trader/incentive concentration if known
    • resolution authority
    • geography or account restrictions
  5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
  6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.

Integration Patterns

  • Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
  • Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
  • Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
  • Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
  • Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

Output Contract

Use:

  1. decision context
  2. market sources
  3. signal quality
  4. comparison sources
  5. integration recommendation
  6. caveats

End with:

Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 65 lines · 71 tokens per session scan A 63f91f6e7183

Subscribe to this mod's changes

prediction-market-oracle-research is a skill published in the GitHub repository gongyijie85/dsh-ecc (7 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 71 tokens to every session and 462 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 88% identical to prediction-market-oracle-research, differing in 2 lines, and is treated as a copy.

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