saas-valuation-compression

SaaS Valuation Compression Analyzer

What This Skill Does

For a given SaaS company, research its funding history and compute ARR-based valuation multiples at each round. Then explain the compression (or expansion) using a structured framework that covers macro rates, growth trajectory, narrative shifts, and comparables.

Always render the output as an inline visualization (using the Visualizer tool) plus a concise prose explanation. Do not just return a wall of numbers.

---

Step-by-Step Workflow

1. Gather Data via Web Search

Search for each of the following. Run searches in parallel where possible.

For the target company:

• [company] funding rounds valuation ARR revenue
• [company] Series [X] raised valuation for each round
• [company] annual recurring revenue ARR [year] for each round date
• [company] investors lead investor [round]

For macro context:

• SaaS ARR valuation multiples [year] private market
• Use the known benchmark table below as fallback if search is thin.

For narrative context:

• [company] AI customers product announcement [year] — AI narrative premium?
• [company] growth rate churn NRR [year] — fundamentals shift?

2. Build the Data Model

For each funding round, extract or estimate:

Field	How to get it
Round name	Direct from search
Date	Direct from search
Amount raised	Direct from search
Post-money valuation	Direct or compute from ownership %; if unavailable, note as estimated
ARR at round date	Search explicitly; if not found, estimate from customer count x ARPC or interpolate
ARR multiple	valuation / ARR
Lead investor	Direct

ARR estimation heuristics (when not public):

• Seed/Series A: ARR often $500K–$3M
• Series B: typically $5M–$20M
• Series C: typically $20M–$60M
• Cross-check against customer count x average deal size if available

3. Compute Compression Metrics

For each consecutive round pair (e.g., B → C):

multiple_compression_pct = (later_multiple - earlier_multiple) / earlier_multiple × 100
valuation_growth_pct = (later_val - earlier_val) / earlier_val × 100
arr_growth_pct = (later_arr - earlier_arr) / earlier_arr × 100