hive-prediction-markets

hive-prediction-markets is a skill for Claude Code from hive-intel/hive-sdk. It costs 91 tokens per session (1,525 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A research guide for prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction markets let people trade on possible outcomes, so their prices represent market-implied odds rather than guaranteed truth.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to find markets, inspect outcomes and prices, estimate implied odds, compare liquidity, or examine traders, holders, and trades.
Why use it?
It helps compare similar markets using their actual resolution rules and distinguishes market prices from confirmed facts.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the hive plugin — 18 skills, 1 MCP server shipped together

Good fit Use it to find markets, inspect outcomes and prices, estimate implied odds, compare liquidity, or examine traders, holders, and trades.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/hive-intel/hive-sdk/hive-prediction-markets
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add hive-intel/hive-sdk --skill hive-prediction-markets
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/hive-intel/hive-sdk

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install hive, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 18 skills, 1 MCP server.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

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README.md
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Your own site
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Per session 91 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,525 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00091 $0.01525
Opus 5.5 $0.00036 $0.00610
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00018 $0.00305
Haiku 4.5 $0.00009 $0.00153

Measured yesterday against content hash c525e57e7dfa, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

hive-prediction-markets scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured yesterday.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/hive-prediction-markets/SKILL.md · 147 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 147 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

hive-prediction-markets: Prediction Markets

Discover and analyze Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets with prices, order books, odds history and trades, plus Polymarket wallet positions, always framed as market-implied odds rather than truth. Polymarket's Gamma, CLOB, and Data APIs and Kalshi's public Trade API are keyless, so these tools work on the keyless lane.

Task toolset and identifiers

Toolset: prediction_markets. Read hive://toolsets/prediction_markets before execution; it is authoritative for the current output schema, material-call budget, phases, fallback condition, and stop conditions.

  • Polymarket: polymarket_search_markets (topic), polymarket_get_events (event slug), polymarket_get_market (market slug or condition id), polymarket_get_price_history and polymarket_get_orderbook (CLOB token id), polymarket_get_wallet_positions and polymarket_get_wallet_activity (EVM wallet address).
  • Kalshi: kalshi_search_markets (query, status or event ticker), kalshi_get_events, and by market ticker kalshi_get_market, kalshi_get_orderbook, kalshi_get_trades, kalshi_get_price_history.
  • Required: a market slug, condition id, token id, wallet address, or a search query, depending on the request.
  • Optional: status filter, limit, interval, depth, outcome.

If the user starts with a topic, search candidates first and ask for selection when multiple markets match; similar markets can have different resolution criteria.

Before choosing endpoints, select exactly one matching entry from the exact workflow's routes[]. Follow its ordered steps, use a fallback only under that step's published condition, stop at three material calls, and preserve the selected route_id in the typed result. The broad coverageCatalog is discovery coverage, not an execution plan.

Procedure

  1. Call search_tools with the venue and need, or read hive://toolsets/prediction_markets.
  2. Call get_api_endpoint_schema for each endpoint before calling it.
  3. Search markets or events for topic prompts; resolve the exact slug, ticker, condition id, or token id before pulling books, history, or trades.
  4. Add liquidity, spread, and freshness context before interpreting prices.
  5. Report the implied odds per outcome, volume or liquidity, venue, provider, and freshness, and never present probability as ground truth.

Read the full file on GitHub · 147 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. yesterday Changed · +1 lines · -9 tokens per session c525e57e7dfa
  2. 1mo ago Changed · +14 lines · +17 tokens per session 305a5c5bb3cb
  3. 1mo ago First seen · 132 lines · 83 tokens per session scan A 12baaec30fe8

Subscribe to this mod's changes

hive-prediction-markets is a skill published in the GitHub repository hive-intel/hive-sdk (20 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 91 tokens to every session and 1,525 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.