earnings-revision

earnings-revision is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading. It costs 43 tokens per session (2,468 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A framework for tracking changes in analyst earnings estimates, company guidance, earnings surprises, and the stock-price movement after results. Post-earnings announcement drift, or PEAD, is the tendency for a stock to keep moving after an earnings result surprises the market.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to study US and Hong Kong stocks, compare actual earnings with analyst consensus, monitor upgrades and downgrades, evaluate management guidance changes, and build event-based investment signals.
Why use it?
It brings several sources of expectation change into one analysis. This helps separate a company’s reported results from whether those results were better or worse than investors expected.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to study US and Hong Kong stocks, compare actual earnings with analyst consensus, monitor upgrades and downgrades, evaluate management guidance changes, and build event-based investment signals.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision
About the project

Vibe-Trading is a personal trading agent that gives an AI system tools for market analysis, algorithmic trading, backtesting, and related workflows. It is for users who want an agent to research and evaluate trading strategies or manage simulated and other trading activities. The catalogue contains skills that expose these trading capabilities to compatible agents.

HKUDS/Vibe-Trading · 33,258 stars · on GitHub · vibetrading.wiki

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill earnings-revision
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for earnings-revision

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for earnings-revision

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/earnings-revision.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 43 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,468 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. ✓ AI security review Fable 5.1 · 6 Sept 2026 📄 Read the review Third-party audits
  • Snyk pass 7 Sept 2026
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00043 $0.02468
Opus 5 $0.00022 $0.01234
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00494
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00247

Measured 12d ago against content hash 0f50849bf417, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

earnings-revision scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

agent/src/skills/earnings-revision/SKILL.md · 234 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 234 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Earnings Revision & Guidance Analysis

Overview

Track sell-side analyst estimate revisions, management guidance changes, and post-earnings price drift to generate investment signals. Earnings revisions are among the most persistent and well-documented alpha factors in equity markets — stocks with upward revisions tend to continue outperforming, and vice versa.

Core Concepts

1. Earnings Revision Momentum

The revision signal hierarchy (strongest to weakest):

Signal Type Description Typical Alpha (annualized) Persistence
Earnings surprise (beat/miss) Actual EPS vs consensus 3-8% post-event drift 60-90 days (PEAD)
Consensus revision breadth % of analysts revising up vs down 4-6% long-short spread 3-6 months
Estimate magnitude change Size of revision relative to prior estimate 3-5% 1-3 months
Guidance revision Management guidance change vs prior 5-10% on event Immediate + 30-60 day drift
Whisper number miss/beat Actual vs buy-side whisper (not official consensus) 2-4% 1-2 weeks

2. Key Metrics

Earnings Surprise:

# Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)
sue = (actual_eps - consensus_eps) / std_of_forecast_errors

# Interpretation
# SUE > +2: large positive surprise → strong PEAD signal
# SUE < -2: large negative surprise → strong negative PEAD
# |SUE| < 0.5: in-line with expectations → weak signal

Revision Breadth:

# Revision breadth ratio
breadth = (num_upgrades - num_downgrades) / total_analysts

# Interpretation
# breadth > +0.5: strong consensus upgrade momentum
# breadth < -0.5: strong consensus downgrade momentum
# |breadth| < 0.2: mixed / no clear direction

Estimate Dispersion:

# Analyst disagreement
dispersion = std_of_estimates / abs(mean_estimate)

# High dispersion (>15%): high uncertainty → larger potential surprise
# Low dispersion (<5%): tight consensus → smaller surprise but higher confidence

Read the full file on GitHub · 234 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 12d ago First seen · 234 lines · 43 tokens per session scan A 0f50849bf417

Subscribe to this mod's changes

earnings-revision is a skill published in the GitHub repository HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (33,258 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 43 tokens to every session and 2,468 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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