global-macro

global-macro is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from HKUDS/Vibe-Trading. It costs 36 tokens per session (1,810 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A global macroeconomic framework linking central-bank policy, exchange rates, geopolitics, and capital flows. It traces how interest-rate decisions can affect bond yields, borrowing costs, company earnings, and asset prices.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to study Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan policy, currency regimes, geopolitical effects, capital flows, and cross-asset allocation.
Why use it?
It helps connect economic events to movements across markets instead of viewing each asset in isolation. It also turns macro conditions into signals for comparing different investments.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to study Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan policy, currency regimes, geopolitical effects, capital flows, and cross-asset allocation.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro
About the project

Vibe-Trading is a personal trading agent that gives an AI system tools for market analysis, algorithmic trading, backtesting, and related workflows. It is for users who want an agent to research and evaluate trading strategies or manage simulated and other trading activities. The catalogue contains skills that expose these trading capabilities to compatible agents.

HKUDS/Vibe-Trading · 33,177 stars · on GitHub · vibetrading.wiki

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading --skill global-macro
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/HKUDS/Vibe-Trading

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for global-macro

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for global-macro

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hkuds/vibe-trading/global-macro.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 36 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,810 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. ✓ AI security review Fable 5.1 · 6 Sept 2026 📄 Read the review Third-party audits
  • Snyk pass 7 Sept 2026
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00036 $0.01810
Opus 5 $0.00018 $0.00905
Sonnet 5 $0.00007 $0.00362
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00181

Measured 11d ago against content hash aaedaf75ab7f, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

global-macro scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

Copies of this mod

1 near-identical copy found in the catalogue:

agent/src/skills/global-macro/SKILL.md · 157 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 157 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Global Macro Analysis

Overview

Builds a macro analysis framework from three dimensions: central-bank policy, exchange-rate regimes, and geopolitics. Outputs quantifiable macro factor signals to drive cross-asset allocation decisions. Core logic: macro cycles determine major asset direction, while micro-level timing is delegated to other skills.

Core Concepts

1. Central Bank Policy Transmission Chain

Policy-rate changes → government bond yield curve → credit spreads → financing costs for the real economy → corporate earnings → equity valuation

Monitoring framework for the three major central banks:

Central Bank Core Indicators Forward Signals Lagging Confirmation
Federal Reserve (Fed) FFR, dot plot, SEP CME FedWatch probabilities nonfarm payrolls / CPI / PCE
European Central Bank (ECB) Main refinancing rate Eurozone PMI, HICP credit growth
Bank of Japan (BOJ) YCC band, policy rate JPY exchange rate, JGB yields core CPI

Historical transmission of Fed hiking / cutting cycles to China A-shares (empirical):

  • Late in a Fed hiking cycle (the last 1-2 hikes), China A-shares often have already priced it in, and the average drawdown of the CSI 300 narrows to -3%
  • In the 3 months after the first Fed cut, the CSI 300 has averaged +8.2% (mean of the 2001 / 2007 / 2019 cycles)
  • But rate cuts do not automatically mean gains. In 2008, cuts came with recession and China A-shares still fell

2. Exchange Rate Forecasting Framework

Three-layer model:

Model Applicable Horizon Core Variables Accuracy
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 3-5 years CPI gap between two countries Long-term anchor
Interest Parity (UIP/CIP) 3-12 months rate differential + forward premium/discount Medium-term direction
BEER model 1-3 years terms of trade + net foreign inflows + productivity Equilibrium estimate

USD/CNY practical checklist:

  • China-US 10Y spread > 0: appreciation pressure on the RMB (capital inflows)
  • China-US 10Y spread < -150bp: rising depreciation pressure on the RMB
  • Net FX settlement surplus / deficit: directly reflects conversion direction of corporates and households
  • PBOC fixing vs market expectation: signal that the countercyclical factor has been activated

Read the full file on GitHub · 157 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 157 lines · 36 tokens per session scan A aaedaf75ab7f

Subscribe to this mod's changes

global-macro is a skill published in the GitHub repository HKUDS/Vibe-Trading (33,177 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 36 tokens to every session and 1,810 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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