valuation-scenario-analysis

valuation-scenario-analysis is a skill for Codex from iFurySt/aifi. It costs 64 tokens per session (553 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

An investment-analysis tool that estimates a range of possible values using financial evidence, peer comparisons, and stated assumptions. It can use methods such as discounted cash flow, which values future cash flows in today's money.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to build bear, base, and bull valuation cases, estimate potential upside or downside, test sensitive assumptions, and assess whether market expectations may already be reflected in the price.
Why use it?
It avoids presenting one precise price target when the result depends on uncertain assumptions. The scenarios show which business drivers matter and where evidence is weak.

Skill for Codex

Written for Codex: agents/openai.yaml present.

Good fit Use it to build bear, base, and bull valuation cases, estimate potential upside or downside, test sensitive assumptions, and assess whether market expectations may already be reflected in the price.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/ifuryst/aifi/valuation-scenario-analysis
View source ↗ iFurySt/aifi
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add iFurySt/aifi --skill valuation-scenario-analysis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/iFurySt/aifi

Made for: Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for valuation-scenario-analysis

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ifuryst/aifi/valuation-scenario-analysis/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ifuryst/aifi/valuation-scenario-analysis)
Your own site
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Per session 64 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 553 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00064 $0.00553
Opus 5 $0.00032 $0.00277
Sonnet 5 $0.00013 $0.00111
Haiku 4.5 $0.00006 $0.00055

Measured 9d ago against content hash c78a6fb9d5ec, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-09, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

valuation-scenario-analysis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/valuation-scenario-analysis/SKILL.md · 65 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 65 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Valuation Scenario Analysis

Use this skill after the target has a financial snapshot and enough evidence to support assumptions. The goal is not a single price target; it is a transparent range of outcomes that shows which drivers matter most and where evidence is weak.

Inputs

  • ResearchTarget from research-target-resolver
  • financial snapshot with period labels, currency, and source links
  • peer comparison or historical multiple context when available
  • thesis, risks, or catalysts that affect assumptions
  • current market price and timestamp when price-implied return is requested

Workflow

  1. Load the target profile, financial evidence, peer context, and current market data if needed.
  2. Choose the valuation method that fits the business model and data quality: multiples, DCF, sum-of-the-parts, asset value, or probability-weighted event analysis.
  3. Define the key drivers before calculating outputs: revenue growth, margin, capital intensity, reinvestment, terminal assumptions, share count, net debt, and segment mix where relevant.
  4. Build bear, base, and bull cases with explicit assumptions and evidence links.
  5. Run sensitivity checks on the few assumptions that most affect value.
  6. Compare scenario value ranges with market price only when price data is fresh enough for the user's request.
  7. Save the model note under research/targets/<target>/artifacts/valuation/.

Read references/valuation-framework.md before building the model.

Output

Return:

  • valuation method and why it fits the target
  • assumption table with sources and confidence labels
  • bear, base, and bull scenario outputs
  • sensitivity table for the most important drivers
  • market-implied expectations when current price is used
  • data gaps, stale inputs, and assumptions that need manual review
  • archive files created or updated
  • handoffs to thesis, risk, and watchlist skills

Quality Gate

Before finishing:

  • do not present a target price as a recommendation
  • state currency, share count basis, enterprise value adjustments, and data timestamps
  • separate sourced inputs from agent assumptions
  • avoid false precision; round outputs to a level supported by the inputs
  • label stale or missing market prices, estimates, and peer multiples
  • explain which assumptions drive most of the valuation range

Read the full file on GitHub · 65 lines

Files

What ships with it

2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 65 lines · 64 tokens per session scan A c78a6fb9d5ec

Subscribe to this mod's changes

valuation-scenario-analysis is a skill published in the GitHub repository iFurySt/aifi (22 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 64 tokens to every session and 553 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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