hypothesis-mining

hypothesis-mining is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from impactbrussels/AINativeOS. It costs 152 tokens per session (1,310 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A method for turning research such as interviews, support logs, search data, papers, and competitor reviews into testable bets.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to extract beliefs from research, rank them by uncertainty and potential harm, and choose what to test first.
Why use it?
It helps prevent teams from testing easy technical assumptions while ignoring uncertain questions such as whether customers will pay.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Part of the ai-native-os plugin — 25 skills, 6 agents shipped together

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/impactbrussels/ainativeos/hypothesis-mining
Any agent
npx skills add impactbrussels/AINativeOS --skill hypothesis-mining
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/impactbrussels/AINativeOS

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Or install ai-native-os, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 25 skills, 6 agents.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for hypothesis-mining

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/impactbrussels/ainativeos/hypothesis-mining.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/impactbrussels/ainativeos/hypothesis-mining)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/impactbrussels/ainativeos/hypothesis-mining"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/impactbrussels/ainativeos/hypothesis-mining.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 152 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,310 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00152 $0.01310
Opus 5 $0.00076 $0.00655
Sonnet 5 $0.00030 $0.00262
Haiku 4.5 $0.00015 $0.00131

Measured 3d ago against content hash 73bc0dbb14fc, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

hypothesis-mining scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 3d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/hypothesis-mining/SKILL.md · 95 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 95 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Hypothesis Mining

You have done the research and now you are drowning in it: transcripts, support tickets, keyword volumes, a stack of papers, competitor one-star reviews. The temptation is to test the assumption that is easiest to check or most pleasant to confirm. That is how founders spend three months proving the technology runs while the real killer, that nobody will pay, goes untested. Mine the input into a ranked stack of falsifiable bets and test the one that is most uncertain and most fatal first.

The method

Mine, classify by risk, score by uncertainty times fatality. Full framework: Handbook Chapter 02. Deep method, scoring grid, and a worked example: references/hypothesis-mining-method.md.

Step 1: Mine every source for raw beliefs

Sweep all the input and pull out the implied beliefs. Different sources surface different risks, so mine widely before you rank.

Source What it reveals best
Interview transcripts Problem and demand risk; the workaround that proves pain
Support logs / forum threads Live pain in the customer's own words
Search / keyword volume Whether anyone is already looking for this
Papers / patents Feasibility risk; what is known to be hard
Competitor reviews (1-star) The unmet job a rival left open

Step 2: Write each as a falsifiable hypothesis

State every belief as: "We believe [X]; we'll know we're wrong if [bar]." Set the pass/fail number before any test. If no result could fail it, it is not a hypothesis, it is a wish. Forbid solution-shaped claims ("users want our dashboard"); restate as a problem belief.

Step 3: Classify the risk

Sort each hypothesis into one bucket, because you test them differently.

Risk type The question it answers
Problem Is the pain real and felt?
Demand Will they move and pay to fix it?
Solution Does our approach actually solve it?
Feasibility Can we build it, legally and technically?

Read the full file on GitHub · 95 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 3d ago First seen · 95 lines · 0 tokens per session scan A 73bc0dbb14fc

Subscribe to this mod's changes

hypothesis-mining is a skill published in the GitHub repository impactbrussels/AINativeOS (1 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 152 tokens to every session and 1,310 once invoked, about $0.0008 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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