assumption-prioritization

assumption-prioritization is a skill for Codex from itseffi/agentic-os. It costs 26 tokens per session (418 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A method for ranking product-strategy assumptions by risk and importance. It helps decide which assumptions deserve attention first after they have been listed.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it after assumption mapping to choose what to validate first during product development.
Why use it?
It prevents the team from testing assumptions in an arbitrary order and focuses effort on the bets that matter most.

Skill for Codex

Written for Codex: agents/openai.yaml present. Also seen: installed under .agents/ (shared by several agents).

Good fit Use it after assumption mapping to choose what to validate first during product development.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add itseffi/agentic-os --skill assumption-prioritization
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/itseffi/agentic-os

Made for: Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for assumption-prioritization

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for assumption-prioritization

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/itseffi/agentic-os/assumption-prioritization.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 26 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 418 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00026 $0.00418
Opus 5.5 $0.00010 $0.00167
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00005 $0.00084
Haiku 4.5 $0.00003 $0.00042

Measured 1mo ago against content hash 762cec2ace8d, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

assumption-prioritization scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

.agents/skills/assumption-prioritization/SKILL.md · 67 lines

What it actually says

Assumption Prioritization

Prioritize assumptions to focus validation efforts on what matters most.

When to Use

After assumption mapping, to decide which assumptions to test first.

The Framework

Score each assumption on two dimensions:

Importance (1-5): Business impact if false

  • 5 = Strategy fails, >20% revenue hit
  • 4 = Major adoption/cost driver (10-20%)
  • 3 = Moderate impact (5-10%)
  • 2 = Minor impact (<5%)
  • 1 = Negligible

Certainty (1-5): Evidence that it's true

  • 1 = No evidence, conjecture
  • 2 = Anecdotes, untested
  • 3 = Early signals, small samples
  • 4 = Strong directional data
  • 5 = Robust evidence, production proof

Risk Score = Importance x (6 - Certainty)

Higher score = riskier assumption = test first

The Process

1. Score Each Assumption

Consider:

  • Impact severity from "impact if wrong"
  • Blast radius (users/systems affected)
  • Irreversibility (cost to fix later)
  • Dependencies (does it block others?)
  • Evidence quality

2. Map to Quadrants

Low Certainty High Certainty
High Importance TEST FIRST Monitor
Low Importance Deprioritize Ignore

3. Rank by Risk Score

Focus validation on High Importance / Low Certainty assumptions.

Output

  • 2x2 summary with counts per quadrant
  • Top risks ranked by score with rationale
  • Full ranked list of all assumptions

When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 1mo ago First seen · 67 lines · 26 tokens per session scan A 762cec2ace8d

Subscribe to this mod's changes

assumption-prioritization is a skill published in the GitHub repository itseffi/agentic-os (117 stars, last pushed 14d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 26 tokens to every session and 418 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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