operations-planning

operations-planning is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from jxoesneon/Ciel. It costs 20 tokens per session (504 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A framework for forecasting demand, deciding how much stock to replenish, and scheduling production. It uses inventory, lead-time, seasonal-demand, and bottleneck information to guide those decisions.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to forecast sales, calculate safety stock, plan replenishment, schedule production, and reschedule work after disruptions.
Why use it?
It helps avoid running out of stock, ordering based on incomplete inventory data, or overloading parts of a production process that are not limiting output.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to forecast sales, calculate safety stock, plan replenishment, schedule production, and reschedule work after disruptions.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add jxoesneon/Ciel --skill operations-planning
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/jxoesneon/Ciel

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for operations-planning

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for operations-planning

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/jxoesneon/ciel/operations-planning.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 20 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 504 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00020 $0.00504
Opus 5 $0.00010 $0.00252
Sonnet 5 $0.00004 $0.00101
Haiku 4.5 $0.00002 $0.00050

Measured 9d ago against content hash 6729079a9d3d, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

operations-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/operations-planning/SKILL.md · 47 lines

What it actually says

CIEL ADAPTATION: Operations Planning (Demand & Production)

This skill formalizes "Flow Control" for physical and digital assets. It applies senior-level heuristics to minimize stockouts and maximize throughput at the system constraint.

The Planning Pillars

  1. Demand Forecasting: Use Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters) for seasonal items. Apply promotional lifts and post-promo dips.
  2. Safety Stock: Use SS = Z × σ_d × √(LT + RP). Target 95% for A-items; 90% for C-items.
  3. Production Scheduling (TOC):
    • The Drum: Identify the bottleneck (utilization > 85%).
    • The Buffer: Time-buffer (50% of lead time) to protect the drum.
    • The Rope: Release new work only at the drum's consumption rate.

Operational Workflow

  • Re-sequence on Disruption: If a machine fails, re-sequence only UNLOCKED jobs. Prioritize constraint-feeding tasks.
  • Changeover Optimization: Sequence light-to-dark or small-to-large to minimize purge times.
  • Inventory Position: IP = On-Hand + On-Order − Backorders. Never order based on on-hand alone.

Anti-Patterns

  • Local Optima: Maximizing utilization of a non-bottleneck resource (creates excess WIP).
  • Amnesiac Forecasting: Ignoring the post-promotional demand dip.
  • Double Ordering: Placing a new PO while an existing one is still in transit.
Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 47 lines · 20 tokens per session scan A 6729079a9d3d

Subscribe to this mod's changes

operations-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository jxoesneon/Ciel (1 stars, last pushed 5d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 20 tokens to every session and 504 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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