alphagbm-polymarket

alphagbm-polymarket is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from leecyno1/boutique-skills. It costs 88 tokens per session (798 once invoked), scanned A, a copy of alphagbm-polymarket, MIT.

A comparison of event probabilities from Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade contracts on future events, with probabilities inferred from option prices.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to compare probabilities, measure their difference and direction, connect events with option positions, and review past forecasting accuracy.
Why use it?
It highlights gaps between what the two markets imply, which may reveal different expectations about events such as rate cuts or elections.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to compare probabilities, measure their difference and direction, connect events with option positions, and review past forecasting accuracy.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add leecyno1/boutique-skills --skill alphagbm-polymarket
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/leecyno1/boutique-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for alphagbm-polymarket

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for alphagbm-polymarket

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 88 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 798 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin 100% copy Near-identical to another mod in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00088 $0.00798
Opus 5 $0.00044 $0.00399
Sonnet 5 $0.00018 $0.00160
Haiku 4.5 $0.00009 $0.00080

Measured 11d ago against content hash c1e6a987afbb, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

alphagbm-polymarket scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

Origin

This is a copy

100% identical to alphagbm-polymarket — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.

skills/default/alphagbm-polymarket/SKILL.md · 77 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 77 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration

Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.

What This Skill Does

Concept Description
Event Probability The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome)
Options-Implied Probability The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew
Probability Spread The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing
Arbitrage Signal When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity
Event Correlation How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions
Historical Accuracy Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events

How to Use

Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.

Output:

  • Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
  • Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
  • Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
  • Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
  • Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events

Example Queries:

  • polymarket signals — Scan for the largest probability mismatches right now
  • prediction market vs options rate cut — Compare Fed rate cut odds across markets
  • event probability election — Election outcome probabilities vs options positioning
  • rate cut odds — What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meeting
  • polymarket arbitrage — Actionable mispricing opportunities

Mock Data

Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:

  • rate-cut-comparison.json — Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-implied
  • event-scan.json — Top mispricing signals across active prediction markets
  • historical-accuracy.json — Past event forecasting accuracy by market type

Read the full file on GitHub · 77 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 77 lines · 88 tokens per session scan A c1e6a987afbb

Subscribe to this mod's changes

alphagbm-polymarket is a skill published in the GitHub repository leecyno1/boutique-skills (5 stars, last pushed 20d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 88 tokens to every session and 798 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to alphagbm-polymarket, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.

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