Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add leecyno1/boutique-skills --skill alphagbm-polymarketgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/leecyno1/boutique-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/leecyno1/boutique-skills/alphagbm-polymarket.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00088 | $0.00798 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00044 | $0.00399 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00018 | $0.00160 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00009 | $0.00080 |
Grade A, and why
alphagbm-polymarket scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
100% identical to alphagbm-polymarket — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 77 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration
Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.
What This Skill Does
| Concept | Description |
|---|---|
| Event Probability | The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome) |
| Options-Implied Probability | The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew |
| Probability Spread | The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing |
| Arbitrage Signal | When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity |
| Event Correlation | How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions |
| Historical Accuracy | Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events |
How to Use
Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.
Output:
- Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
- Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
- Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
- Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
- Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events
Example Queries:
polymarket signals— Scan for the largest probability mismatches right nowprediction market vs options rate cut— Compare Fed rate cut odds across marketsevent probability election— Election outcome probabilities vs options positioningrate cut odds— What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meetingpolymarket arbitrage— Actionable mispricing opportunities
Mock Data
Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:
rate-cut-comparison.json— Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-impliedevent-scan.json— Top mispricing signals across active prediction marketshistorical-accuracy.json— Past event forecasting accuracy by market type
What ships with it
17 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
- LICENSE 1.0 KB
- mock-data/AAPL.json 6.7 KB
- mock-data/buffett-analysis/example-ko.json 1.9 KB
- mock-data/fear-score/example-calm.json 661 B
- mock-data/fear-score/example-signal-triggered.json 663 B
- mock-data/hedge-advisor/example-gain-protection.json 1.5 KB
- mock-data/marks-cycle/example-neutral.json 366 B
- mock-data/META.json 8.8 KB
- mock-data/NVDA.json 8.4 KB
- mock-data/SPY.json 7.5 KB
- mock-data/take-profit/example-leveraged-etf.json 1.1 KB
- mock-data/tepper-signal/example-armed.json 589 B
- mock-data/tepper-signal/example-cold.json 488 B
- mock-data/TSLA.json 9.4 KB
- mock-data/vix-status/example-extreme-fear.json 528 B
- mock-data/vix-status/example-sweet-spot.json 506 B
- SOURCE.txt 449 B
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 11d ago First seen · 77 lines · 88 tokens per session scan A c1e6a987afbb
alphagbm-polymarket is a skill published in the GitHub repository leecyno1/boutique-skills (5 stars, last pushed 20d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 88 tokens to every session and 798 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to alphagbm-polymarket, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.
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