ach

ach is a skill for Claude Code from Liberty91LTD/cti-skills. It costs 29 tokens per session (1,047 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A structured method for comparing several possible explanations against the same evidence. ACH, short for Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, is used in investigations where more than one explanation may fit.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it for attribution questions, ambiguous incidents, high-stakes assessments, or disagreements about which explanation is best supported.
Why use it?
It reduces confirmation bias by requiring analysts to consider alternatives and evidence that contradicts their first idea.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: user-invocable in frontmatter.

Good fit Use it for attribution questions, ambiguous incidents, high-stakes assessments, or disagreements about which explanation is best supported.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add Liberty91LTD/cti-skills --skill ach
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Liberty91LTD/cti-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for ach

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for ach

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/liberty91ltd/cti-skills/ach.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 29 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,047 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00029 $0.01047
Opus 5 $0.00015 $0.00524
Sonnet 5 $0.00006 $0.00209
Haiku 4.5 $0.00003 $0.00105

Measured 11d ago against content hash e7388b69849d, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

ach scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/ach/SKILL.md · 122 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 122 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

ACH is the most important structured analytic technique for CTI. It forces you to evaluate ALL plausible hypotheses against ALL significant evidence, reducing the impact of cognitive biases — especially confirmation bias.

When to Use ACH

  • Attribution questions: "Who is behind this campaign?"
  • Ambiguous situations: Multiple plausible explanations exist
  • High-stakes assessments: Getting it wrong has significant consequences
  • Contested analysis: Analysts disagree on the conclusion

Step-by-Step Procedure

Step 1: Generate Hypotheses

List ALL reasonable hypotheses. Include unlikely ones — the point is to avoid premature narrowing.

Rules:

  • Minimum 3 hypotheses (if you only have 2, you're doing binary thinking)
  • Include at least one that challenges your initial instinct
  • Hypotheses should be mutually exclusive where possible
  • Include "unknown actor" or "coincidence" as hypotheses when appropriate

Step 2: List Significant Evidence

Enumerate all evidence and arguments relevant to the hypotheses.

For each piece of evidence, record:

  • Description of the evidence
  • Source (with Admiralty Scale rating)
  • Whether it's direct evidence, circumstantial, or absence of evidence

Step 3: Build the Consistency Matrix

Mark each cell as:

  • C (Consistent) — evidence supports this hypothesis
  • I (Inconsistent) — evidence contradicts this hypothesis
  • NA (Not Applicable) — evidence is irrelevant to this hypothesis

Matrix Template

| Evidence | Source Rating | H1: [Name] | H2: [Name] | H3: [Name] | H4: [Name] |
|----------|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| E1: [description] | B2 | C | I | C | NA |
| E2: [description] | A1 | C | C | I | C |
| E3: [description] | C3 | I | C | C | NA |
| E4: [description] | B2 | C | I | I | C |
| E5: [description] | D4 | C | C | C | I |
| **Inconsistencies** | | **1** | **2** | **2** | **1** |

Step 4: Analyse the Matrix

Critical principle: Focus on DISPROVING hypotheses, not proving them.

Read the full file on GitHub · 122 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 122 lines · 29 tokens per session scan A e7388b69849d

Subscribe to this mod's changes

ach is a skill published in the GitHub repository Liberty91LTD/cti-skills (18 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 29 tokens to every session and 1,047 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.