key-assumptions-check

Key Assumptions Check

Every analytical judgment rests on assumptions — often unstated. This technique surfaces them and evaluates whether the analysis holds if assumptions are wrong.

Procedure

Step 1: State the Analytical Line

Write the current assessment or conclusion in one clear sentence.

Step 2: List All Assumptions

Brainstorm every assumption underlying the assessment. Include:

• Assumptions about threat actor intent or capability
• Assumptions about data completeness or accuracy
• Assumptions about the relevance of historical patterns
• Assumptions about the target environment
• Assumptions about timing or sequencing

Step 3: Evaluate Each Assumption

Assumption	Importance	Confidence	Status
[Assumption 1]	High	High	Validated
[Assumption 2]	High	Low	FLAG
[Assumption 3]	Medium	Medium	Monitor
[Assumption 4]	Low	High	Accepted

Importance: How much does the conclusion depend on this assumption?

• High: If wrong, the conclusion changes significantly
• Medium: If wrong, the conclusion weakens but may still hold
• Low: If wrong, the conclusion is largely unaffected

Confidence: How sure are we this assumption is correct?

• High: Strong evidence supports it
• Medium: Some evidence, but not fully validated
• Low: Little or no evidence; assumed by default

Step 4: Flag Critical Assumptions

Any assumption that is High Importance + Low Confidence is critical. These are the assumptions most likely to invalidate your analysis.

Step 5: Determine Impact

For each flagged assumption:

• What would the conclusion be if this assumption is wrong?
• Can this assumption be validated through additional collection?
• Should the confidence level of the overall assessment be lowered?

Output Template

## Key Assumptions Check: [Assessment Title]

### Analytical Line
[The assessment being checked]

### Assumptions Matrix
| # | Assumption | Importance | Confidence | Status |
|---|-----------|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 1 | ... | H/M/L | H/M/L | ... |

### Flagged Assumptions (High Importance + Low/Medium Confidence)
1. **[Assumption]**: If wrong, [impact on conclusion]. Collection gap: [what would validate this].

### Impact on Assessment
[Does the assumptions check change the confidence level? Should the conclusion be qualified?]

### Recommended Actions
- [Validate assumption X through Y collection]
- [Lower confidence from High to Moderate because of assumption Z]