Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills --skill timeline-scenario-analysisgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00165 | $0.01750 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00082 | $0.00875 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00033 | $0.00350 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00016 | $0.00175 |
Grade A, and why
timeline-scenario-analysis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 109 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Timeline Scenario Analysis
The second foundational VC question
There are really only two questions a venture investor is asking:
- How big can it get? ← sibling skill [[market-capture-analysis]]
- How fast can it get that big? ← this skill
This skill is where time enters the picture. It takes the penetration grid produced by [[market-capture-analysis]] and asks: given the company's actual current growth at its actual unit of sale, what does it take to reach any given cell — and how sensitive is that timeline to small changes in growth rate? Doing this skill without its sibling produces a growth curve with no destination (compounding toward nothing in particular); see Why this skill alone is incomplete below.
What it answers
Given the capture grid from [[market-capture-analysis]] and the company's current growth trajectory at its actual unit of sale, what does it take to reach each penetration cell — and how sensitive is that timeline to changes in growth rate?
Inputs
| Input | Source |
|---|---|
| Capture grid | Output of [[market-capture-analysis]] |
| Current growth rate | Reported MoM and/or YoY at the company's unit of sale |
| Unit of sale | Same as the capture grid — must be consistent |
| Cohort behavior (if known) | Retention, expansion, churn — affect whether reported growth is durable |
The four scenarios
For any starting growth rate (the canonical example: 10% MoM), the analysis walks four scenarios:
- Sustain — what does it take to hold the current growth rate? Sales hiring pace, channel saturation timing, ICP exhaustion. Most companies cannot sustain their current growth rate at scale; saying so is not bearish, it is honest.
- Improve — what would have to be true for growth to accelerate? New product line, geographic expansion, channel unlock, pricing change. Often the bull case of the memo.
- Plateau — at what point and at what rate does growth flatten? S-curve realism. Where on the S-curve is the company today?
- Reduce — what causes growth to decelerate and how fast? Competitive entry, market saturation, macro, ICP exhaustion, churn catching up.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 11d ago First seen · 109 lines · 165 tokens per session scan A caa5bd9846eb
timeline-scenario-analysis is a skill published in the GitHub repository lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills (4 stars, last pushed 18d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 165 tokens to every session and 1,750 once invoked, about $0.0008 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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