timeline-scenario-analysis

timeline-scenario-analysis is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills. It costs 165 tokens per session (1,750 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A method for estimating how long a company could take to reach different market-penetration levels under several growth scenarios.

In plain words
What is it for?
Testing sustain, improve, plateau, and reduce scenarios using current month-over-month or year-over-year growth and a market-capture grid.
Why use it?
It shows how changes in the company's growth rate affect the time needed to reach a given scale, rather than considering growth in isolation.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one. Also seen: mentions Claude Code.

Good fit Testing sustain, improve, plateau, and reduce scenarios using current month-over-month or year-over-year growth and a market-capture grid.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills --skill timeline-scenario-analysis
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for timeline-scenario-analysis

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for timeline-scenario-analysis

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills/timeline-scenario-analysis.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 165 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,750 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00165 $0.01750
Opus 5 $0.00082 $0.00875
Sonnet 5 $0.00033 $0.00350
Haiku 4.5 $0.00016 $0.00175

Measured 11d ago against content hash caa5bd9846eb, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

timeline-scenario-analysis scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

timeline-scenario-analysis/SKILL.md · 109 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 109 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Timeline Scenario Analysis

The second foundational VC question

There are really only two questions a venture investor is asking:

  1. How big can it get? ← sibling skill [[market-capture-analysis]]
  2. How fast can it get that big? ← this skill

This skill is where time enters the picture. It takes the penetration grid produced by [[market-capture-analysis]] and asks: given the company's actual current growth at its actual unit of sale, what does it take to reach any given cell — and how sensitive is that timeline to small changes in growth rate? Doing this skill without its sibling produces a growth curve with no destination (compounding toward nothing in particular); see Why this skill alone is incomplete below.

What it answers

Given the capture grid from [[market-capture-analysis]] and the company's current growth trajectory at its actual unit of sale, what does it take to reach each penetration cell — and how sensitive is that timeline to changes in growth rate?

Inputs

Input Source
Capture grid Output of [[market-capture-analysis]]
Current growth rate Reported MoM and/or YoY at the company's unit of sale
Unit of sale Same as the capture grid — must be consistent
Cohort behavior (if known) Retention, expansion, churn — affect whether reported growth is durable

The four scenarios

For any starting growth rate (the canonical example: 10% MoM), the analysis walks four scenarios:

  1. Sustain — what does it take to hold the current growth rate? Sales hiring pace, channel saturation timing, ICP exhaustion. Most companies cannot sustain their current growth rate at scale; saying so is not bearish, it is honest.
  2. Improve — what would have to be true for growth to accelerate? New product line, geographic expansion, channel unlock, pricing change. Often the bull case of the memo.
  3. Plateau — at what point and at what rate does growth flatten? S-curve realism. Where on the S-curve is the company today?
  4. Reduce — what causes growth to decelerate and how fast? Competitive entry, market saturation, macro, ICP exhaustion, churn catching up.

Read the full file on GitHub · 109 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 109 lines · 165 tokens per session scan A caa5bd9846eb

Subscribe to this mod's changes

timeline-scenario-analysis is a skill published in the GitHub repository lossless-group/lossless-agent-skills (4 stars, last pushed 18d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 165 tokens to every session and 1,750 once invoked, about $0.0008 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

Related

Other skills, from other repositories

session-review

End-of-session adversarial review loop. Assemble the session's work into a role-assigned, self-contained brief, then run independent reviewers in parallel — an isolated code-reader (the idea-validator agent) that reads the ACTUAL files and web-checks technology currency, plus an external-family model if you have one …

awrshift/agent-memory-kit · 149 tokens

memory-audit

Audit MEMORY.md against the memory discipline — oversized sections, settled multi-session patterns that belong in knowledge/concepts/, stacked chronicle blocks, stale entries. Produces a move plan as a table for approval, then executes the approved moves atomically. Use when the SessionStart hook reports a tripped…

awrshift/agent-memory-kit · 119 tokens

second-opinion

Cross-check the agent's own answer with independent reviewers before bringing it to the user. Use when the user says 'second opinion', 'sanity check', 'cross-check', 'am I missing something', 'stress-test', 'devil's advocate', 'run a full review', 'this is important', 'high-stakes', 'help me choose between', 'critique…

awrshift/agent-memory-kit · 130 tokens

close-session

An end-of-session workflow that reviews new lessons, asks before promoting repeated patterns, refreshes memory files, and writes a handoff.

awrshift/agent-memory-kit · 64 tokens

ios26-api-reference

Authoritative iOS/macOS/watchOS 26 API reference with 3-tier smart loading. Prevents crashes from hallucinated APIs. Trigger on ANY code involving FoundationModels, SpeechTranscriber, SpeechAnalyzer, @Generable, LanguageModelSession, glassEffect, SwiftData, @Observable, Live Activity, App Intents, Vision…

markdavidgan/apple-dev-skills · 120 tokens

next-cache-components

Next.js 16 Cache Components guidance. Use when refactoring React Server Components for performance, debugging Partial Prerendering (PPR) issues, or applying the use cache directive, cacheLife, cacheTag, updateTag, and revalidateTag. Also use when deciding whether data should be static, cached, or dynamic, or when…

neverinfamous/memory-journal-mcp · 99 tokens