Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add mahmoud20138/Tradecraft --skill capitulation-mean-reversiongit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/mahmoud20138/TradecraftWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/mahmoud20138/tradecraft/capitulation-mean-reversion)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/mahmoud20138/tradecraft/capitulation-mean-reversion"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/mahmoud20138/tradecraft/capitulation-mean-reversion/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/mahmoud20138/tradecraft/capitulation-mean-reversion"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/mahmoud20138/tradecraft/capitulation-mean-reversion.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00268 | $0.07128 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00134 | $0.03564 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00054 | $0.01426 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00027 | $0.00713 |
Grade A, and why
capitulation-mean-reversion scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 672 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Lance Breitstein's Capitulation Mean Reversion Framework
Source: Lance Breitstein — verified $100M+ trader, Trillium Capital's #1 trader (2020 & 2021), all-time firm PNL record holder, adviser to SMB Capital, featured in Jack Schwager's upcoming Market Wizards: The Next Generation. Chart Fanatics interview (March 2026).
Core Philosophy
Markets are extremely efficient. The starting price is usually the RIGHT price. The strategy focuses on identifying moments when price has moved FAR from equilibrium and stacking variables to create massive positive expected value for the reversion trade.
Expected Value Formula:
EV = (Win Rate x Reward) - (Loss Rate x Risk)
The entire system is about shifting EVERY component of this equation in your favor simultaneously.
The 7-Variable Checklist
At any given moment, Lance is constantly weighing ALL factors dynamically. Each variable is scored on a mental 0-10 scale.
Variable 1: Size of Move
- S&P down 1 penny? Not interesting. S&P down $100? Very interesting.
- The LARGER the move from equilibrium, the more appealing for mean reversion.
- Measure in % terms AND absolute terms relative to normal ranges.
Variable 2: Speed / Rate of Change (THE MOST IMPORTANT)
- A 5% move over a year = not interesting.
- A 5% move in 1 minute = extremely interesting.
- Slope analysis grades:
| Slope | Description | Tradeable? |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | Slow, steady decline | NO — grinding, not capitulating |
| -1 | Moderate acceleration | Getting interesting |
| -3 | Sharp selloff | Good setup territory |
| -10 | Asymptotic waterfall | BEST setups — "we love this" |
- The ideal pattern: Boring/stable -> steady decline -> acceleration -> WATERFALL (asymptotic).
- Rate of change CRESCENDO is the key visual signature.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 11d ago First seen · 672 lines · 268 tokens per session scan A fa599641ac70
capitulation-mean-reversion is a skill published in the GitHub repository mahmoud20138/Tradecraft (15 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 268 tokens to every session and 7,128 once invoked, about $0.0013 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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