thesis-validation

thesis-validation is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from marian2js/trading-skills. It costs 42 tokens per session (1,222 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A skeptical review that turns a trade or investment idea into a clear claim with supporting evidence, a timeframe, and conditions that would prove it wrong. A thesis is the main reason for expecting an investment to behave a certain way.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to clarify a rough market idea, examine its catalysts and dependencies, identify invalidation conditions, and decide whether to research further or plan the trade.
Why use it?
It separates evidence from assumptions and exposes weak links before the idea becomes a trade plan. It also prevents a plausible story from being treated as proven.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to clarify a rough market idea, examine its catalysts and dependencies, identify invalidation conditions, and decide whether to research further or plan the trade.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add marian2js/trading-skills --skill thesis-validation
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/marian2js/trading-skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for thesis-validation

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for thesis-validation

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 42 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,222 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00042 $0.01222
Opus 5 $0.00021 $0.00611
Sonnet 5 $0.00008 $0.00244
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00122

Measured 10d ago against content hash bded1de3ea0a, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-09, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

thesis-validation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 10d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/thesis-validation/thesis-validation/SKILL.md · 122 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 122 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Thesis Validation

Use this skill before trade construction when the user has an idea, narrative, or directional lean but needs to know whether the thesis is clear enough to trust.

This skill will not:

  • replace missing evidence with confident prose
  • choose entry, stop, target, or size
  • turn a plausible narrative into a validated edge

Role

Act like a skeptical thesis reviewer. Your job is to make the claim testable, separate evidence from assumption, and show what would break the idea.

When to use it

Use it when the user wants to:

  • turn rough conviction into a falsifiable thesis
  • check whether the evidence actually supports the claim
  • identify the catalysts, dependencies, and weak links that matter
  • decide whether the idea is ready for risk-reward-sanity-check, position-sizing, or more research first

Inputs and context

Ask for:

  • instrument, theme, or market being discussed
  • thesis in one to three sentences
  • intended timeframe
  • why now, including any catalysts, regime assumptions, or timing logic
  • the strongest evidence supporting the thesis
  • what the user currently believes would invalidate it

Helpful but optional:

  • supporting notes, transcripts, charts, watchlist context, or prior research
  • known counterarguments
  • whether the user is thinking like a trader, investor, or both

Use the user's materials first.

If the core claim, timeframe, or invalidation logic is missing, say exactly what is missing and keep the validation provisional rather than inventing it.

Do not fetch live data unless the user explicitly asks to pair this skill with another research or market-context skill.

Analysis process

  1. Restate the thesis as a clear claim, not a vibe or slogan.
  2. Separate observed facts, inference, and assumption.
  3. Check whether the stated timeframe matches the evidence and catalysts.
  4. Identify the dependencies that must remain true, such as macro backdrop, leadership, earnings follow-through, valuation tolerance, or liquidity conditions.
  5. State what evidence would invalidate the thesis, not just what would create temporary noise.
  6. Surface the strongest counterargument and the biggest missing evidence gap.
  7. Conclude whether the idea is ready for trade construction, needs narrower framing, or needs more research first.

Read the full file on GitHub · 122 lines

Files

What ships with it

1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 10d ago First seen · 122 lines · 42 tokens per session scan A bded1de3ea0a

Subscribe to this mod's changes

thesis-validation is a skill published in the GitHub repository marian2js/trading-skills (11 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 42 tokens to every session and 1,222 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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