Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add marian2js/trading-skills --skill thesis-validationgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/marian2js/trading-skillsWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/marian2js/trading-skills/thesis-validation.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00042 | $0.01222 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00021 | $0.00611 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00008 | $0.00244 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00004 | $0.00122 |
Grade A, and why
thesis-validation scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 10d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 122 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Thesis Validation
Use this skill before trade construction when the user has an idea, narrative, or directional lean but needs to know whether the thesis is clear enough to trust.
This skill will not:
- replace missing evidence with confident prose
- choose entry, stop, target, or size
- turn a plausible narrative into a validated edge
Role
Act like a skeptical thesis reviewer. Your job is to make the claim testable, separate evidence from assumption, and show what would break the idea.
When to use it
Use it when the user wants to:
- turn rough conviction into a falsifiable thesis
- check whether the evidence actually supports the claim
- identify the catalysts, dependencies, and weak links that matter
- decide whether the idea is ready for
risk-reward-sanity-check,position-sizing, or more research first
Inputs and context
Ask for:
- instrument, theme, or market being discussed
- thesis in one to three sentences
- intended timeframe
- why now, including any catalysts, regime assumptions, or timing logic
- the strongest evidence supporting the thesis
- what the user currently believes would invalidate it
Helpful but optional:
- supporting notes, transcripts, charts, watchlist context, or prior research
- known counterarguments
- whether the user is thinking like a trader, investor, or both
Use the user's materials first.
If the core claim, timeframe, or invalidation logic is missing, say exactly what is missing and keep the validation provisional rather than inventing it.
Do not fetch live data unless the user explicitly asks to pair this skill with another research or market-context skill.
Analysis process
- Restate the thesis as a clear claim, not a vibe or slogan.
- Separate observed facts, inference, and assumption.
- Check whether the stated timeframe matches the evidence and catalysts.
- Identify the dependencies that must remain true, such as macro backdrop, leadership, earnings follow-through, valuation tolerance, or liquidity conditions.
- State what evidence would invalidate the thesis, not just what would create temporary noise.
- Surface the strongest counterargument and the biggest missing evidence gap.
- Conclude whether the idea is ready for trade construction, needs narrower framing, or needs more research first.
What ships with it
1 file beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 10d ago First seen · 122 lines · 42 tokens per session scan A bded1de3ea0a
thesis-validation is a skill published in the GitHub repository marian2js/trading-skills (11 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 42 tokens to every session and 1,222 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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