confidence-fragility-review

Confidence Fragility Review

Stress-test the gap between how confident an artifact sounds and how much evidence actually supports it.

Use When

• a plan, release note, README, landing page, or SET bundle sounds ready but proof is thin;
• generated docs imply stronger guarantees than the repo can support;
• final review needs a fear-oriented lens before ship;
• a user asks what could go wrong if people trust the artifact at face value.

Workflow

1. Identify confident claims:
   • readiness claims;
   • safety claims;
   • completeness claims;
   • compatibility claims;
   • performance or reliability claims.
2. For each claim, ask what backs it:
   • tests or CI;
   • schema or type contracts;
   • runtime checks;
   • docs links;
   • human approval;
   • explicit limitations.
3. Classify the concern:
   • tactical: a specific path can fail;
   • structural: a category of failure has no defense;
   • epistemic: confidence is not earned by evidence.
4. Separate justified fragility from projected worry.
5. Recommend the smallest evidence step that would make confidence warranted.

Output Shape

Use:

• verdict: CONFIDENCE_WARRANTED or FRAGILITY_MASKED;
• confidence claims reviewed;
• evidence found;
• fragility register: tactical, structural, or epistemic;
• smallest proof step.

Guardrails

• Do not turn this into a generic risk audit.
• Do not demand proof for every harmless claim.
• Do not perform security analysis unless the artifact makes security claims.
• Be explicit when a fear is plausible but not evidenced.

Provenance

Adapted from the anxiety-reader pattern in aself101/agents-and-pipelines, reframed as a compact confidence-vs-evidence review skill.