Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add martineserios/thebrana --skill second-order-thinkinggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/martineserios/thebranaWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00082 | $0.04994 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00041 | $0.02497 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00016 | $0.00999 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00499 |
Grade A, and why
second-order-thinking scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
100% identical to second-order-thinking — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 670 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Second-Order Thinking
Think beyond immediate consequences to understand the chain reactions of decisions. Master Howard Marks' investment framework for seeing what others miss.
When to Use This Skill
- Strategic decisions where long-term consequences matter
- Policy/rule changes that will trigger behavioral responses
- Competitive moves to anticipate market reactions
- Product decisions where user behavior may shift
- Investment analysis to see past obvious conclusions
- Avoiding unintended consequences in any decision
Methodology Foundation
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Source | Howard Marks - "The Most Important Thing" (2011), Charlie Munger |
| Core Principle | "First-level thinking says, 'This is a good company, let's buy.' Second-level thinking says, 'This is a good company, but everyone thinks it's great so it's overpriced. Sell.'" |
| Why This Matters | Most people only consider immediate effects. Second-order thinkers anticipate the cascading consequences—and see opportunities and risks others miss. |
What Claude Does vs What You Decide
| Claude Does | You Decide |
|---|---|
| Structures content frameworks | Final messaging |
| Suggests persuasion techniques | Brand voice |
| Creates draft variations | Version selection |
| Identifies optimization opportunities | Publication timing |
| Analyzes competitor approaches | Strategic direction |
What This Skill Does
- Maps consequence chains - Identifies 2nd, 3rd, nth order effects
- Reveals hidden risks - Finds dangers not obvious from first look
- Surfaces opportunities - Discovers advantages in counterintuitive moves
- Anticipates competitor responses - Predicts how others will react
- Avoids common traps - Stops decisions that seem good but backfire
- Improves long-term outcomes - Optimizes for total consequence, not just immediate
How to Use
Analyze a Decision with Second-Order Thinking
Apply second-order thinking to this decision: [decision]
What are the first, second, and third-order consequences?
What might we be missing?
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 670 lines · 82 tokens per session scan A b95f57bbc3cb
second-order-thinking is a skill published in the GitHub repository martineserios/thebrana (3 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 82 tokens to every session and 4,994 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to second-order-thinking, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.
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workflow
Guided walkthrough of the 7-step workflow. Prompts at each step to invoke or skip. Use when starting a new feature or when unsure which step comes next.
log
A phase-log command that records completed work in Markdown files, a human-readable text format, and updates an index of phases.