Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add martineserios/thebrana --skill second-order-thinkinggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/martineserios/thebranaWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/martineserios/thebrana/second-order-thinking.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00082 | $0.04994 |
| Opus 5.5 | $0.00033 | $0.01998 |
| Sonnet 5.5 | $0.00016 | $0.00999 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00499 |
Grade A, and why
second-order-thinking scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
This is a copy
100% identical to second-order-thinking — 0 lines differ, which has more behind it and is treated as the original. This page carries a canonical link to it rather than competing with it.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 670 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Second-Order Thinking
Think beyond immediate consequences to understand the chain reactions of decisions. Master Howard Marks' investment framework for seeing what others miss.
When to Use This Skill
- Strategic decisions where long-term consequences matter
- Policy/rule changes that will trigger behavioral responses
- Competitive moves to anticipate market reactions
- Product decisions where user behavior may shift
- Investment analysis to see past obvious conclusions
- Avoiding unintended consequences in any decision
Methodology Foundation
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Source | Howard Marks - "The Most Important Thing" (2011), Charlie Munger |
| Core Principle | "First-level thinking says, 'This is a good company, let's buy.' Second-level thinking says, 'This is a good company, but everyone thinks it's great so it's overpriced. Sell.'" |
| Why This Matters | Most people only consider immediate effects. Second-order thinkers anticipate the cascading consequences—and see opportunities and risks others miss. |
What Claude Does vs What You Decide
| Claude Does | You Decide |
|---|---|
| Structures content frameworks | Final messaging |
| Suggests persuasion techniques | Brand voice |
| Creates draft variations | Version selection |
| Identifies optimization opportunities | Publication timing |
| Analyzes competitor approaches | Strategic direction |
What This Skill Does
- Maps consequence chains - Identifies 2nd, 3rd, nth order effects
- Reveals hidden risks - Finds dangers not obvious from first look
- Surfaces opportunities - Discovers advantages in counterintuitive moves
- Anticipates competitor responses - Predicts how others will react
- Avoids common traps - Stops decisions that seem good but backfire
- Improves long-term outcomes - Optimizes for total consequence, not just immediate
How to Use
Analyze a Decision with Second-Order Thinking
Apply second-order thinking to this decision: [decision]
What are the first, second, and third-order consequences?
What might we be missing?
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 1mo ago First seen · 670 lines · 82 tokens per session scan A b95f57bbc3cb
second-order-thinking is a skill published in the GitHub repository martineserios/thebrana (3 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 82 tokens to every session and 4,994 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. It is 100% identical to second-order-thinking, differing in 0 lines, and is treated as a copy.
Other skills, from other repositories
pr
Comprehensive PR/issue review - analyzes architecture, tests, identifies unrelated changes mixed in, drafts review comment or issue comment. Use when user asks to review a PR, check a PR, look at PR changes, or comment on an issue.
root-cause-investigator
Systematic root cause analysis for errors, bugs, and unexpected behaviors using 5-Why methodology. Use when user reports errors, build failures, test failures, performance issues, integration problems, or any "it's not working" scenarios.
crap-analyzer
Use to produce a risk-based refactor + test plan for recently-changed code on a diff/branch/PR by computing CRAP (complexity × untested) on changed methods. Multi-language — TypeScript, JavaScript, Python, Java, Kotlin, Go, Ruby, C#, Rust, PHP — auto-discovers how the repo generates coverage. Triggers …
init
First-time Archcore setup. Wires the host (MCP config, hooks, CLAUDE.md/AGENTS.md managed block), measures the authored context the repo already holds, then composes a first-day seed — stack rule, run guide, data-model, integrations, config, entry points, public surface, a linked architecture overview, and specs for…
review
Review branch changes against Archcore docs, or report project health. Use for 'review my branch', 'review the changes before merge', 'show status', 'documentation gaps', 'check if docs match code', 'close out the feature', 'ship the feature and close it out', or after a staleness warning. Modes, named as the first…
eu-ai-act-check
Use when checking EU AI Act compliance; redirects to the canonical claude-governance implementation.